THE GREAT RECESSION AND CONSUMER DEMAND FOR ALCOHOL A Dynamic Panel-Data Analysis of US Households
THE GREAT RECESSION AND CONSUMER DEMAND FOR ALCOHOL A Dynamic Panel-Data Analysis of US Households
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DOI：
10.1162/ajhe_a_00019
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发表时间：
2015-06-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Tefft, Nathan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cotti, Chad;Dunn, Richard A.;Tefft, Nathan
对于那些希望制定减轻酗酒有害后果的政策的人来说，了解消费者对酒精的需求如何应对当地经济状况的变化非常重要。我们使用 2004 年至 2011 年间大量美国家庭的高频购买数据，在动态面板数据估计框架中研究酒精需求在商业周期中的变化情况。我们发现强有力的证据表明对包装酒精的需求是顺周期性的。最近一个商业周期高峰和低谷之间州级失业率和个人人均收入的变化意味着包装酒精（按体积计算的乙醇）需求将下降 6.5%。结果还表明，酒精支出的下降主要是由于数量的减少，而不是每盎司乙醇购买价格的总体下降。此外，我们通过考虑消费动态，在方法上改进了相关文献，因为由于饮酒数量和类型的习惯形成，对酒精的长期需求可能与短期需求不同。我们的结果还表明，如果不考虑消费动态，往往会低估宏观经济状况与酒精需求之间的长期关联。
For those looking to design policies that mitigate the deleterious consequences of alcohol abuse, understanding how consumer demand for alcohol responds to changes in the local economic conditions is of great importance. We use high-frequency purchase data from a large panel of US households between 2004 and 2011 to examine how alcohol demand changes over the business cycle in a dynamic panel-data estimation framework. We find strong evidence that demand for packaged alcohol is procyclical. Changes in the state-level unemployment rate and personal per capita income between the most recent business cycle peak and trough imply a 6.5 percent decrease in the demand for packaged alcohol (ethanol by volume). The results also show that the decline in alcohol expenditures is primarily due to a decrease in quantity rather than an overall decrease in the price per ounce of ethanol purchased. Moreover, we improve on the related literature methodologically by accounting for consumption dynamics, as long-run demand for alcohol may differ from short-run demand because of habit formation in the quantity and type of alcohol consumed. Our results also indicate that failing to account for consumption dynamics will tend to understate the long-run association between macroeconomic conditions and alcohol demand.