Estimates of harm associated with changes in Swedish alcohol policy:: results from past and present estimates
Estimates of harm associated with changes in Swedish alcohol policy:: results from past and present estimates
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1360-0443.2006.01485.x
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发表时间：
2006-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Rossow, Ingeborg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andreasson, Sven;Holder, Harold D.;Rossow, Ingeborg
(i)比较实际的发展，在瑞典与酒精相关的危害与估计之前，在1995年的重大政策变化和（二）估计对消费和酒精相关的危害，降低酒精价格在瑞典的影响。设计酒精效应参数表示的强度之间的关系，总的酒精消费量和不同的酒精相关的伤害，从ARIMA（自回归综合移动平均）时间序列分析。1950年至1995年瑞典与酒精有关的死亡率（肝硬化、酒精性精神病、酒精中毒和酒精中毒）、事故死亡率、自杀、凶杀、袭击和病假的计量。结果以前的估计酒精相关的伤害的基础上的变化，在1994 - 2002年期间，瑞典的酒精消费量，在某些情况下（E。G.暴力袭击和事故），相对接近实际伤害水平，而在其他情况下（如，G.凶杀、与酒精有关的死亡和自杀），它们与观察到的伤害水平不同。据估计，烈酒减税40%和葡萄酒减税15%将使人均酒精消费量增加0.35升。据估计，这一增长将导致289人死亡，1627人受伤，160万人因病缺勤。结论：即使是相对温和的酒精消费量增加的基础上的伤害的未来变化的估计产生相当大的负面影响，与瑞典经济的经济后果。例如，与酒精有关的额外死亡人数占瑞典每年交通死亡人数的一半以上。
(i) To compare actual developments of alcohol-related harm in Sweden with estimates derived prior to major policy changes in 1995 and (ii) to estimate the effects on consumption and alcohol-related harm of reducing alcohol prices in Sweden. Design Alcohol effect parameters expressing the strength of the relationship between overall alcohol consumption and different alcohol-related harms were obtained from ARIMA ( Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time-series analyses. Measurements Measures of Swedish alcohol-related mortality ( liver cirrhosis, alcoholic psychosis, alcoholism and alcohol poisoning), accident mortality, suicide, homicide, assaults and sickness absence from 1950 to 1995. Findings Previous estimates of alcohol-related harm based on changes in alcohol consumption for the period 1994 - 2002 for Sweden were, in some cases ( e. g. violent assaults and accidents), relatively close to the actual harm levels, whereas in other cases ( e. g. homicides, alcohol-related mortality and suicide) they diverged from observed harm levels. A tax cut by 40% on spirits and by 15% on wine is estimated to increase total per capita alcohol consumption by 0.35 litre. This increase is estimated to cause 289 additional deaths, 1627 additional assaults and 1.6 million additional sickness absence days. Conclusions The estimates of future changes in harm based upon even relatively modest increases in alcohol consumption produce considerable negative effects, with large economic consequences for the Swedish economy. The additional alcohol-related deaths, for instance, amount to more than half the number of yearly traffic fatalities in Sweden.