Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO2 emissions in China
Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO2 emissions in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.042
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发表时间：
2016-12-15
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Huo, Hong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hofmann, Jana;Guan, Dabo;Huo, Hong
本文分析了不同普及率的电动汽车替代汽油车计划对石油和电力部门及其CO2排放的影响。该研究采用自上而下的环境投入产出（EI-O）模型。我们的研究结果表明，用电动汽车取代汽油汽车对汽油总产量的影响大于对总发电量的影响。例如，在5%、20%、50%、70%和100%的汽油车更换为电动汽车时，政策情景1中汽油总产量分别下降1.66%、6.65%、16.62%、23.27%和33.24%，而电力总产量仅增加0.71%、2.82%、7.05%、9.87%和14.10%。我们的研究证实，用80%的煤炭驱动的电动汽车取代汽油车对总体排放没有影响。石油部门二氧化碳排放量的减少被电力部门二氧化碳排放量的增加所抵消，使全国二氧化碳排放量保持不变。通过电力部门脱碳，即在发电组合中减少30%的煤炭使用，全国二氧化碳排放总量将减少28%（从10，953吨二氧化碳减少到7870吨二氧化碳）。以电动汽车取代汽油车计划（50%以煤电为动力）有助于减少石油行业的二氧化碳排放，并对电力行业的额外二氧化碳排放贡献为零或非常小的比例（政策情景2和3）。我们认为，电动汽车可以有助于减少对石油的依赖，空气质量的改善和二氧化碳排放量的减少，只有当它们的引入伴随着积极的电力部门脱碳。(C)2016爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有
This paper analyses the impacts of the gasoline vehicle replacement programme with EVs at different penetration rates on petroleum and electricity sectors and their CO2 emissions. The study utilises a top-down-type Environmental Input-Output (EI-O) model. Our results show that the replacement of gasoline cars with EVs causes greater impacts on total gasoline production than on total electricity generation. For example, at 5%, 20%, 50%, 70% and 100% gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, the total gasoline production decreases by 1.66%, 6.65%, 16.62%, 23.27% and 33.24% in policy scenario 1, while the total electricity production only increases by 0.71%, 2.82%, 7.05%, 9.87% and 14.10%. Our study confirms that the gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, powered by 80% coal, has no effect on overall emissions. The CO2 emissions reduction in the petroleum sector is offset by the increase in CO2 emissions in the electricity sector, leaving the national CO2 emissions unchanged. By decarbonising the electricity sector, i.e. using 30% less coal in electricity generation mix, the total CO2 emissions will be reduced by 28% (from 10,953 to 7870 Mt CO2) on the national level. The gasoline vehicle replacement programme with EVs, powered by 50% coal -based electricity, helps reduce CO2 emissions in petroleum sector and contributes zero or a very small proportion of additional CO2 emissions to the electricity sector (policy scenario 2 and 3). We argue that EVs can contribute to a reduction of petroleum dependence, air quality improvement and CO2 emission reduction only when their introduction is accompanied by aggressive electricity sector decarbonisation. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.