Actors and factors in land-use simulation: The challenge of urban shrinkage
Actors and factors in land-use simulation: The challenge of urban shrinkage
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.02.012
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发表时间：
2012-07-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Rink, Dieter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Haase, Dagmar;Haase, Annegret;Rink, Dieter
建模者和社会科学家都试图为复杂的城市系统找到更好的解释。包括发展路径、发展动力和预期影响。到目前为止，土地利用研究主要集中在城市增长上。然而，自从城市收缩进入社会科学和土地利用科学的研究议程以来，出现了新的挑战。因此，本文的重点是双重的：以城市收缩为例，我们首先讨论了现有的土地利用建模方法在土地利用、人口统计学和治理方面整合新社会科学知识的能力，因为社会科学模型对于准确解释收缩背后的过程是不可或缺的。其次，我们讨论了系统动力学（SD）、元胞自动机（CA）和基于主体的模型（ABM）方法的结合，以涵盖城市收缩的主要特征、过程和模式。以德国莱比锡为例，我们提供了一个联合SD-CA模型和一个ABM的初步结果，这两个模型都应用了关于城市收缩的社会科学知识。(C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
Both modelers and social scientists attempt to find better explanations of complex urban systems. They include development paths, underlying driving forces and their expected impacts. So far, land-use research has predominantly focused on urban growth. However, new challenges have arisen since urban shrinkage entered the research agenda of the social and land-use sciences. Therefore, the focus of this paper is a twofold one: Using the example of urban shrinkage, we first discuss the capacity of existing land-use modeling approaches to integrate new social science knowledge in terms of land-use, demography and governance because social science models are indispensable for accurately explaining the processes behind shrinkage. Second, we discuss the combination of system dynamics (SD), cellular automata (CA) and agent-based model (ABM) approaches to cover the main characteristics, processes and patterns of urban shrinkage. Using Leipzig, Germany, as a case study, we provide the initial results of a joint SD-CA model and an ABM that both operationalize social science knowledge regarding urban shrinkage. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.