Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulations
Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulations
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-2019-1216
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发表时间：
2020-02
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Paul Thomas Griffiths;L. Murray;G. Zeng;A. Archibald;L. Emmons;I. Galbally;B. Hassler;L. Horowitz;J. Keeble;Jane Liu;O. Moeini;V. Naik;F. O’Connor;Y. M. Shin;D. Tarasick;S. Tilmes;S. Turnock;O. Wild;P. Young;P. Zanis
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作者：
Paul Thomas Griffiths;L. Murray;G. Zeng;A. Archibald;L. Emmons;I. Galbally;B. Hassler;L. Horowitz;J. Keeble;Jane Liu;O. Moeini;V. Naik;F. O’Connor;Y. M. Shin;D. Tarasick;S. Tilmes;S. Turnock;O. Wild;P. Young;P. Zanis
抽象的。利用耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 6）第6阶段的数据研究了1850年至2100年对流层臭氧的演变。我们使用耦合的大气-海洋化学-气候模型评估长期变化，重点是CMIP历史和ScenarioMIP ssp 370实验，详细的对流层臭氧诊断存档。该模式的合奏进行了评估，对一套表面，探空仪和卫星观测的过去几十年，并发现重现显着的空间，季节和十年的变化和趋势。多模式对流层臭氧平均负荷从1850年的247 ± 36 Tg增加到2005-2014年期间的平均值356 ± 31 Tg，增加了44%。模拟的当前数值与以前的测定值吻合得很好（ACCENT：336 ± 27 Tg;大气化学和气候模式相互比较项目，ACCMIP：337 ± 23 Tg;对流层臭氧评估报告，TOAR：340 ± 34 Tg）。在ssp 370实验中，臭氧负荷到2100年增加到416 ± 35 Tg。在同一时期，使用臭氧生产（PO 3）和臭氧损失（LO 3）诊断方法对臭氧收支进行了审查。1850年至2100年期间，臭氧产生量和化学品损失量均稳步增加，净化学品产生量（PO 3-LO 3）在2000年左右达到最大值。剩余项包含平流层-对流层输送的贡献，在21世纪恢复之前的同一时间达到最小值，而干沉降在1850-2100年期间稳步增加。模型残差项之间的差异解释在对流层顶高度和平流层臭氧负担的变化。
Abstract. The evolution of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2100 has been studied using data from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We evaluate long-term changes using coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate models, focusing on the CMIP Historical and ScenarioMIP ssp370 experiments, for which detailed tropospheric-ozone diagnostics were archived. The model ensemble has been evaluated against a suite of surface, sonde and satellite observations of the past several decades and found to reproduce well the salient spatial, seasonal and decadal variability and trends. The multi-model mean tropospheric-ozone burden increases from 247 ± 36 Tg in 1850 to a mean value of 356 ± 31 Tg for the period 2005–2014, an increase of 44 %. Modelled present-day values agree well with previous determinations (ACCENT: 336 ± 27 Tg; Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project, ACCMIP: 337 ± 23 Tg; Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report, TOAR: 340 ± 34 Tg). In the ssp370 experiments, the ozone burden increases to 416 ± 35 Tg by 2100. The ozone budget has been examined over the same period using lumped ozone production (PO3) and loss (LO3) diagnostics. Both ozone production and chemical loss terms increase steadily over the period 1850 to 2100, with net chemical production (PO3-LO3) reaching a maximum around the year 2000. The residual term, which contains contributions from stratosphere–troposphere transport reaches a minimum around the same time before recovering in the 21st century, while dry deposition increases steadily over the period 1850–2100. Differences between the model residual terms are explained in terms of variation in tropopause height and stratospheric ozone burden.