Heterogeneity in the onwards transmission risk between local and imported cases affects practical estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number.
Heterogeneity in the onwards transmission risk between local and imported cases affects practical estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number.
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本地案例和进口案例之间的向前传播风险的异质性会影响时间依赖性繁殖数的实际估计。
DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2021.0308
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发表时间：
2022-10-03
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Thompson, R. N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Creswell, R.;Augustin, D.;Bouros, I.;Farm, H. J.;Miao, S.;Ahern, A.;Robinson, M.;Lemenuel-Diot, A.;Gavaghan, D. J.;Lambert, B. C.;Thompson, R. N.
在传染病暴发期间，推断传播特征的汇总统计数据对于规划干预措施至关重要。一个重要的指标是时间依赖性繁殖数（Rt），它表示每个感染个体在其感染期内产生的继发病例的预期数量。在暴发期间，由于人群免疫力的变化和干预措施的变化（包括影响个人接触网络的因素）等因素，Rt值会发生变化。虽然可以估计单个人群范围的Rt，但这可能会掩盖人群中亚组之间的传播差异。在这里，我们探讨这种异质性对Rt估计的影响。具体而言，我们考虑两组受感染的宿主：本地人群以外的感染者（输入病例）和本地感染者（本地病例）。我们使用贝叶斯方法来估计Rt，通过在线工具提供给其他人使用，该工具考虑了这些群体中个体向前传播风险的差异。使用来自全球不同地区的COVID-19数据，我们表明，对输入性病例和本地病例之间相对传播风险的不同假设会显著影响Rt估计值，并对干预措施产生影响。这突出了需要收集数据，描述在不同的感染宿主之间的传播异质性爆发期间，并考虑到这些异质性的方法来估计RT。本文是主题问题的一部分“模拟现实生活中的流行病的技术挑战和克服这些挑战的例子”。
During infectious disease outbreaks, inference of summary statistics characterizing transmission is essential for planning interventions. An important metric is the time-dependent reproduction number (Rt), which represents the expected number of secondary cases generated by each infected individual over the course of their infectious period. The value of Rt varies during an outbreak due to factors such as varying population immunity and changes to interventions, including those that affect individuals' contact networks. While it is possible to estimate a single population-wide Rt, this may belie differences in transmission between subgroups within the population. Here, we explore the effects of this heterogeneity on Rt estimates. Specifically, we consider two groups of infected hosts: those infected outside the local population (imported cases), and those infected locally (local cases). We use a Bayesian approach to estimate Rt, made available for others to use via an online tool, that accounts for differences in the onwards transmission risk from individuals in these groups. Using COVID-19 data from different regions worldwide, we show that different assumptions about the relative transmission risk between imported and local cases affect Rt estimates significantly, with implications for interventions. This highlights the need to collect data during outbreaks describing heterogeneities in transmission between different infected hosts, and to account for these heterogeneities in methods used to estimate Rt. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.
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DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00001-9
发表时间：
2022-05
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hart WS;Miller E;Andrews NJ;Waight P;Maini PK;Funk S;Thompson RN
通讯作者：
Thompson RN
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2021.0001
发表时间：
2021-07-19
期刊：
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
Brooks-Pollock E;Danon L;Jombart T;Pellis L
通讯作者：
Pellis L
通过时变传染数估计分析中国主要城市COVID-19防控的异质性和有效性。
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Cheng Q;Liu Z;Cheng G;Huang J
通讯作者：
Huang J
通过非药物干预措施，SARS-CoV-2 的序列间隔随着时间的推移而缩短
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Ali, Sheikh Taslim;Wang, Lin;Cowling, Benjamin J.
通讯作者：
Cowling, Benjamin J.
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
Hart WS;Abbott S;Endo A;Hellewell J;Miller E;Andrews N;Maini PK;Funk S;Thompson RN
通讯作者：
Thompson RN