Steric sea level rise over the Mediterranean Sea: present climate and scenario simulations
Steric sea level rise over the Mediterranean Sea: present climate and scenario simulations
复制标题
地中海海平面上升：当前气候和情景模拟
作者：
A. Carillo;G. Sannino;V. Artale;P. Ruti;S. Calmanti;A. Dell’Aquila
一个区域大气-海洋耦合模式已被用来估计海平面上升在地中海盆地在目前和未来的条件下。ERA 40再分析覆盖了1958-2001年期间，目前的气候模拟已经被迫。此外，还利用全球耦合模式ECHAM 5-MPIOM对1951-2000年的气候进行了模拟。另外两个50年的模拟已经进行了SRESA 1B情景下的21世纪世纪和不同的只是在温度和盐度剖面用于放松海洋模型在大西洋缓冲区。目前的气候模拟已在温度、盐度和海平面方面与观测数据进行了验证，在整个地中海和不同次流域的平均值和变率方面都显示出良好的表现。未来情景模拟表明，视大西洋边界条件而定，整个海盆的平均空间海平面在50年内上升约2或7厘米。大西洋上层约1 °C和0.5 psu的差异主要反映了盐层成分，当大西洋缓冲区使用较新鲜和较冷的边界条件时，盐层成分对海平面上升有负面影响，而在另一种情况下，盐层成分对海平面上升有正面影响。边界条件的影响在盆地中并不均匀，在一些最东部的地区尤其强烈。
A regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model has been used to estimate sea level rise in the Mediterranean basin under present and future conditions. A present climate simulation has been forced by ERA40 reanalysis covering the period 1958–2001. Moreover a simulation has been forced by the global coupled model ECHAM5-MPIOM under present climate conditions for the period 1951–2000. Two other 50-year simulations have been performed under the SRESA1B scenario for the twenty-first century and differ only in temperature and salinity profiles used to relax the ocean model in the Atlantic buffer zone. The present climate simulation has been verified in terms of temperature, salinity and sea level against observed data, showing good performances both in mean values and variability over the whole Mediterranean Sea and over different sub-basins. The future scenario simulations show that the steric sea level averaged over the entire basin rises of about 2 or 7 cm in 50 years depending on the Atlantic boundary conditions. The difference of about 1 °C and 0.5 psu in the upper layers of the Atlantic sea reflects mainly on the halosteric component that contributes negatively to the sea level rise, when fresher and colder boundary conditions are used in the Atlantic buffer zone, and positively in the other case. The impact of the boundary conditions is not uniform in the basin and is particularly strong in some easternmost regions.