Health spending projections for 2002-2012.
Health spending projections for 2002-2012.
复制标题
2002-2012 年卫生支出预测。
作者：
S. Heffler;Sheila D. Smith;Sean P. Keehan;M. K. Clemens;Greg Won;M. Zezza
我们预测 2002 年和 2003 年全国医疗保健支出增长将放缓，反映出预期的医疗保险和私人个人医疗支出增长放缓。这些因素超过了劳动力市场疲软导致的预计医疗补助支出增长，以及与承保周期相关的私人健康保险保费通胀持续走高的预期。在整个预测期内，国民医疗支出增长预计仍将超过经济增长。其结果是，医疗保健占国内生产总值的比重预计将从 2001 年的 14.1% 增加到 2012 年的 17.7%。
We forecast a slowdown in national health spending growth in 2002 and 2003, reflecting slower projected Medicare and private personal health spending growth. These factors outweigh higher projected Medicaid spending growth, caused by weak labor markets, and an expectation of continued high private health insurance premium inflation related to the underwriting cycle. Over the entire projection period, national health spending growth is still expected to outpace economic growth. The result is that the health share of gross domestic product is projected to increase from 14.1 percent in 2001 to 17.7 percent in 2012.