Delaying the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans
Delaying the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans
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DOI：
10.1111/1753-6405.13016
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发表时间：
2020-07-22
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
McBryde, Emma
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adekunle, Adeshina;Meehan, Michael;McBryde, Emma
目的：继2019年底在中国武汉爆发新型严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）和名为COVID-19的疾病后，各国实施了不同的干预措施，如旅行禁令，以减缓这种新型病毒的传播。这份简短的报告评估了澳大利亚为防止COVID-19输入而实施的旅行禁令的影响。方法：我们开发了一个随机元种群模型来捕捉COVID-19的全球动态和传播。通过调整我们的模型以捕捉全球和澳大利亚实施的旅行禁令，我们将预测的COVID-19输入澳大利亚病例与观察到的输入病例进行了比较。结果：我们的建模结果与澳大利亚和其他地方观察到的情况密切一致。我们观察到COVID-19的输入减少了79%，而COVID-19在澳大利亚的爆发推迟了约一个月。对COVID-19至二零二零年五月的进一步预测显示，传播模式取决于基本繁殖数量。结论：实施旅行禁令有效地延缓了COVID-19的广泛传播。然而，需要加强国内控制措施，以防止澳大利亚成为另一个震中。对公共卫生的影响：本报告显示了关闭边境对控制大流行的重要性。
Objective:Following the outbreak of novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), and the disease named COVID-19, in Wuhan, China in late 2019, countries have implemented different interventions such as travel bans to slow the spread of this novel virus. This brief report evaluates the effect of travel bans imposed to prevent COVID-19 importation in the Australian context. Methods:We developed a stochastic meta-population model to capture the global dynamics and spread of COVID-19. By adjusting our model to capture the travel bans imposed globally and in Australia, the predicted COVID-19 cases imported to Australia were evaluated in comparison to observed imported cases. Results:Our modelling results closely aligned with observed cases in Australia and elsewhere. We observed a 79% reduction in COVID-19 importation and a delay of the COVID-19 outbreak in Australia by approximately one month. Further projection of COVID-19 to May 2020 showed spread patterns depending on the basic reproduction number. Conclusion:Imposing the travel ban was effective in delaying widespread transmission of COVID-19. However, strengthening of the domestic control measures is needed to prevent Australia from becoming another epicentre. Implications for public health:This report has shown the importance of border closure to pandemic control.