Future Amplification of Sea Surface Temperature Seasonality Due To Enhanced Ocean Stratification
Future Amplification of Sea Surface Temperature Seasonality Due To Enhanced Ocean Stratification
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DOI：
10.1029/2022gl098607
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发表时间：
2022-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Anila Rani Jo;June‐Yi Lee;A. Timmermann;F. Jin;R. Yamaguchi;Angeles Gallego
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Anila Rani Jo;June‐Yi Lee;A. Timmermann;F. Jin;R. Yamaguchi;Angeles Gallego
在许多地区，预计未来海面温度（SST）对温室变暖的响应在夏季比冬季更大。导致海表温度季节性周期放大的原因仍不清楚。为了确定预计季节周期强化的稳健性并查明潜在的物理机制，我们分析了耦合模型比较项目第五阶段中使用 13 个耦合大气环流模型进行的一系列历史和温室变暖模拟。在代表性浓度路径 8.5 情景中，海表温度季节周期的幅度（定义为气候最高温度和最低温度之间的差异）到 21 世纪末平均增加 30% ± 20%。对简化混合层热收支的分析表明，放大现象可归因于上层海洋层化的增加以及年平均混合层的浅滩。预计海表温度季节性的加剧可能对海洋生态系统的未来变化产生重要影响。
In many regions the projected future sea surface temperature (SST) response to greenhouse warming is larger in summer than in winter. What causes this amplification of the SST seasonal cycle has remained unclear. To determine robustness of the projected seasonal cycle intensification and ascertain underlying physical mechanisms we analyze a suite of historical and greenhouse warming simulations conducted with 13 coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. In the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, the amplitude of SST seasonal cycle, defined as the difference between climatological maximum and minimum temperature, increases by 30% ± 20% on average by the end of 21st century. Analysis of a simplified mixed layer heat budget demonstrates that the amplification can be attributed to the increasing upper ocean stratification and hence shoaling of the annual‐mean mixed layer. The projected intensification of SST seasonality may have important implications for future changes in marine ecosystems.