A Numerical Study on the Extreme Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)
A Numerical Study on the Extreme Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)
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DOI：
10.1175/waf-d-17-0101.1
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发表时间：
2018-07
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
K. Fox;F. Judt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Fox;F. Judt
2015 年 10 月，飓风帕特里夏席卷东太平洋，强度达到破纪录的 185 kt（1 kt = 0.51 m s−1），成为有记录以来最强的飓风。操作模型和国家飓风中心的官方预测未能预测帕特里夏前所未有的强度，引发了人们对这种极端事件是否真的可以预测的疑问。这项研究报告了使用最先进的高分辨率数值天气预报模型成功模拟帕特里夏的情况。研究发现，高模型分辨率（Δx ≤ 1 km）、涡流初始化和耗散加热参数化是真实模拟帕特里夏强度演化的关键因素。该模拟用于研究帕特里夏的环境，包括海面温度、垂直风切变和湿度，前提是模拟能够捕获帕特里夏的峰值强度，也能准确地代表帕特里夏的环境。与统计飓风强度预测方案数据集得出的气候学相比，海面温度排在第 99 个百分位，环境垂直风切变排在第 83 个百分位（从高到低排序）。然而，湿度排名较为温和。整体预测表明，与其他经过充分研究的快速增强案例（例如 2010 年的厄尔飓风）相比，帕特里夏具有相对较高的可预测性。这项研究的结果意味着高分辨率模型原则上能够预测像帕特里夏这样的极端飓风的强度。
In October 2015 Hurricane Patricia stormed through the eastern Pacific, taking its place as the strongest hurricane in recorded history when its intensity reached a record breaking 185 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1). Operational models and the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast failed to predict Patricia’s unprecedented intensification, provoking questions as to whether such an extreme event can actually be forecast. This study reports on the successful simulation of Patricia using a state-of-the-art high-resolution numerical weather prediction model. It was found that high model resolution (Δx ≤ 1 km), vortex initialization, and the parameterization of dissipative heating were key factors in realistically simulating Patricia’s intensity evolution. The simulation was used to investigate Patricia’s environment in terms of sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and humidity, under the premise that a simulation able to capture Patricia’s peak intensity would also accurately represent Patricia’s environment. Compared with a climatology derived from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme dataset, sea surface temperature ranked in the 99th percentile and environmental vertical wind shear in the 83rd percentile (ordered from high to low). However, humidity ranked more moderately. Ensemble forecasts indicate that Patricia had relatively high predictability in comparison to other well-studied rapid intensification cases such as 2010’s Hurricane Earl. The results from this study imply that high-resolution models are in principle able to predict the intensity of extreme hurricanes like Patricia.