On the endogeneity of political preferences: Evidence from individual experience with democracy
On the endogeneity of political preferences: Evidence from individual experience with democracy
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aaa0880
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发表时间：
2015-03-06
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Schuendeln, Matthias
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fuchs-Schuendeln, Nicola;Schuendeln, Matthias
民主政体依赖于广大民众的支持，但人们对这种支持的决定因素知之甚少。我们调查了对民主的支持是否会随着在该制度下度过的时间的增加而增加，以及偏好是否因此受到政治制度的影响。基于1994年至2013年期间来自104个国家的38万个个人水平的观察结果，并利用一个国家和一年内在民主制度下度过的时间长度的个人水平变化，我们发现了政治偏好是内生的证据。对于新兴民主国家，我们的研究结果意味着民众的支持需要时间来发展。例如，大约8.5年以上的民主经验的效果对应于小学和中学教育之间对民主的支持的差异。
Democracies depend on the support of the general population, but little is known about the determinants of this support. We investigated whether support for democracy increases with the length of time spent under the system and whether preferences are thus affected by the political system. Relying on 380,000 individual-level observations from 104 countries over the years 1994 to 2013, and exploiting individual-level variation within a country and a given year in the length of time spent under democracy, we find evidence that political preferences are endogenous. For new democracies, our findings imply that popular support needs time to develop. For example, the effect of around 8.5 more years of democratic experience corresponds to the difference in support for democracy between primary and secondary education.