Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production
Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2470
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发表时间：
2015-02-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Zhu, Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Asseng, S.;Ewert, F.;Zhu, Y.
作物模型是评估气候变化对当地和全球粮食生产威胁的重要工具(1)。目前用于预测小麦产量的模型在模拟作物对温度的反应时高度不确定(2)。在这里，我们系统地测试了农业模式比较和改进项目的30种不同的小麦作物模型，对照生长季节平均温度在15摄氏度到32摄氏度之间的田间实验，包括人工加热实验。许多模型很好地模拟了产量，但在较高的温度下精度较低。无论所使用的输入信息是什么，模型集合中值在模拟作物温度响应方面始终比任何单个模型都更准确。外推模型总体温度反应表明，气候变暖已经减缓了大多数小麦种植区的产量增长。据估计，全球小麦产量每进一步升高摄氏度就会下降6%，并在空间和时间上变得更加多变。
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.