Patterns and Predictors of Late-Life Drinking Trajectories: A 10-Year Longitudinal Study
Patterns and Predictors of Late-Life Drinking Trajectories: A 10-Year Longitudinal Study
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DOI：
10.1037/a0018592
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发表时间：
2010-06-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Moos, Rudolf H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brennan, Penny L.;Schutte, Kathleen K.;Moos, Rudolf H.
这项研究探讨了成年人在中晚期到老年早期的10年时间间隔内酒精消费的群体水平和个体内下降的程度。此外，它还确定了这些成年人10年饮酒轨迹的关键基线预测因素。社区居民（n = 1，291;基线年龄为55至65岁）在10年的时间间隔内对人口统计学和健康特征，应对反应，社会背景和饮酒进行了4点评估。描述性交叉波统计和多水平回归分析表明，在整个样本中，参与者的10年饮酒模式相对稳定。然而，男性的模式，以及那些在基线时饮酒超过推荐酒精消费指南的个人，比女性和在推荐水平内饮酒的个人更易变，下降速度更快。与预期相反，基线使用物质来减少紧张和更重的依赖，以避免应对预测更快的速度下降，酒精消费。事后前瞻性中介分析表明，这种情况可能会发生，因为这些和其他基线预测因素会增加出现新健康问题的风险，而这反过来又会促使减少饮酒。
This study examines the extent of group-level and intra-individual decline in alcohol consumption among adults as they traverse a 10-year interval spanning late-middle to early-old age. Further, it identifies key baseline predictors of these adults' 10-year drinking trajectories. Community residents (n = 1,291; age 55 to 65 years at baseline) were assessed at 4 points over a 10-year interval on demographic and health characteristics, coping responses, social context, and alcohol consumption. Descriptive cross-wave statistics, and multilevel regression analyses, indicated that in the sample overall, participants' 10-year patterns of alcohol consumption were relatively stable. However, men's patterns, and those of individuals drinking beyond recommended alcohol consumption guidelines at baseline, were more variable and showed steeper rates of decline, than did those of women and individuals drinking within recommended levels. Contrary to expectation baseline use of substances to reduce tension and heavier reliance on avoidance coping predicted faster rate of decline in alcohol consumption. Post hoc prospective mediation analyses suggested that this may have occurred because these and other baseline predictors heighten risk of developing new health problems which, in turn, motivate reduced alcohol consumption.