The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and LatinAmerica in 2055
The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and LatinAmerica in 2055
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DOI：
10.1016/s0959-3780(02)00090-0
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发表时间：
2003-04-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Thornton, PK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, PG;Thornton, PK
气候变化对农业的影响可能会大大增加确保粮食安全和减少贫困的发展挑战。我们使用高分辨率方法生成特征性的每日天气数据，以驱动玉米作物的详细模拟模型，展示了到 2055 年对非洲和拉丁美洲玉米生产可能产生的影响。尽管结果表明，到 2055 年，玉米产量总体仅减少 10%，相当于每年损失 20 亿美元，但总体结果隐藏着巨大的可变性：可以确定玉米产量可能发生重大变化的区域。迫切需要在家庭层面对气候变化进行评估，以便以农业为生的贫困和弱势群体能够成为以扶贫为目标的研究和开发活动的适当对象。 (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. 保留所有权利。
The impacts of climate change on agriculture may add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty. We show the possible impacts on maize production in Africa and Latin America to 2055, using high-resolution methods to generate characteristic daily weather data for driving a detailed simulation model of the maize crop. Although the results indicate an overall reduction of only 10% in maize production to 2055, equivalent to losses of $2 billion per year, the aggregate results hide enormous variability: areas can be identified where maize yields may change substantially. Climate change urgently needs to be assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targeted in research and development activities whose object is poverty alleviation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.