The 2020/21 Extremely Cold Winter in China Influenced by the Synergistic Effect of La Nina and Warm Arctic
The 2020/21 Extremely Cold Winter in China Influenced by the Synergistic Effect of La Nina and Warm Arctic
复制标题
受拉尼娜和北极暖流协同影响，2020/21年中国极冷冬季
DOI：
10.1007/s00376-021-1033-y
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Jia Xiaolong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zheng Fei;Yuan Yuan;Ding Yihui;Li Kexin;Fang Xianghui;Zhao Yuheng;Sun Yue;Zhu Jiang;Ke Zongjian;Wang Ji;Jia Xiaolong
2020/21年上半冬，中国北方和南方地区都经历了一段极寒时期，中国多个站点都创下了历史最低气温。与此同时，一场超过海洋和大气阈值的中度拉尼娜事件于2020年8月开始，并于几个月后发展到成熟阶段，就在2020/21年冬季之前。在这份报告中，北极涛动负位相、西伯利亚高压加强、乌拉尔高压加强和东亚大槽加深迫使北方半球中高纬大尺度大气环流异常，被认为是2020/21年冬季寒潮频发的直接原因。与此同时，暖北极和冷热带太平洋（拉尼娜）的协同作用，在半球尺度上为加强中高纬度大气环流异常提供了不可缺少的背景。最后，提供了最新的拉尼娜预测，并讨论了2020/21冬季剩余时间的气候演变，以便未来决策和预警。
In the first half of winter 2020/21, China has experienced an extremely cold period across both northern and southern regions, with record-breaking low temperatures set in many stations of China. Meanwhile, a moderate La Nina event which exceeded both oceanic and atmospheric thresholds began in August 2020 and in a few months developed into its mature phase, just prior to the 2020/21 winter. In this report, the mid–high-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, which were forced by the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation, a strengthened Siberian High, an intensified Ural High and a deepened East Asian Trough, are considered to be the direct reason for the frequent cold surges in winter 2020/21. At the same time, the synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and the cold tropical Pacific (La Nina) provided an indispensable background, at a hemispheric scale, to intensify the atmospheric circulation anomalies in middleto- high latitudes. In the end, a most recent La Nina prediction is provided and the on-coming evolution of climate is discussed for the remaining part of the 2020/21 winter for the purpose of future decision-making and early warning.