The impact of climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition and land use change on simulated contemporary global river flow
The impact of climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition and land use change on simulated contemporary global river flow
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2011gl046773
复制
发表时间：
2011-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Xiaoying Shi;J. Mao;P. Thornton;F. Hoffman;W. M. Post
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xiaoying Shi;J. Mao;P. Thornton;F. Hoffman;W. M. Post
我们调查了气候，大气CO2浓度上升，增加人为氮沉降和土地利用变化的影响大陆河流流量在1948年至2004年期间使用社区土地模型版本4（CLM4）与耦合河流传输模型（RTM），全球河流路由方案。结果表明，在研究期间，全球平均河流流量呈明显的减少趋势，气候强迫可能是该趋势的主要控制因素。氮沉降和土地利用变化分别约占模拟全球尺度河流流量减少的5%和2.5%，而大气CO2则呈上升趋势。然而，在我们的模拟中，每个驱动因素的相对作用在不同地区是异质的。亚马逊河流域的河流流量的趋势主要由CO2解释，而长江流域的河流流量下降趋势中，土地利用变化占27.4%。我们的模拟表明，为了更好地了解河流流量的趋势，不仅需要考虑气候，还需要考虑大气成分，碳氮相互作用和土地利用变化，特别是在区域尺度上。
We investigated how climate, rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, increasing anthropogenic nitrogen deposition and land use change influenced continental river flow over the period 1948–2004 using the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) with coupled river transfer model (RTM), a global river routing scheme. The model results indicate that the global mean river flow shows significant decreasing trend and climate forcing likely functions as the dominant controller of the downward trend during the study period. Nitrogen deposition and land use change account for about 5% and 2.5% of the decrease in simulated global scale river flow, respectively, while atmospheric CO2 accounts for an upward trend. However, the relative role of each driving factor is heterogeneous across regions in our simulations. The trend in river flow for the Amazon River basin is primarily explained by CO2, while land use change accounts for 27.4% of the downward trend in river flow for the Yangtze rive basin. Our simulations suggest that to better understand the trends of river flow, it is not only necessary to take into account the climate, but also to consider atmospheric composition, carbon‐nitrogen interaction and land use change, particularly for regional scales.