Flood sensitivity of the Bavarian Alpine Foreland since the late Middle Ages in the context of internal and external climate forcing factors
Flood sensitivity of the Bavarian Alpine Foreland since the late Middle Ages in the context of internal and external climate forcing factors
复制标题
内外气候强迫因素背景下中世纪晚期以来巴伐利亚高山前地的洪水敏感性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Karl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
O. Böhm;J. Jacobeit;R. Glaser;Karl
本文介绍了洪水的敏感性的巴伐利亚州的一部分，德国的阿尔卑斯山前陆，并解决不同的问题，气候变化和洪水频率，从14世纪到今天。本文的重点是巴伐利亚前陆的上位空间单元的洪水频率。根据书面史料，德国阿尔卑斯山区的洪水历史可以追溯到14世纪。一个主要的结果是，“洪水丰富”和“洪水贫乏”的事件发生在几乎周期性的序列。根据有限的数据，16世纪世纪之前的洪水丰富时期记录在1300-1335年、1370-1450年、1470-1525年、1555-1590年、1615-1665年、1730-1780年、1820-1870年和1910-1955年，以及从1980年开始的第九个时期。丰水期的特点是洪水历时较长。大多数洪水丰富和洪水贫乏的时期（特别是开始和结束）可以连接到自然气候变率的变化。这些变化包括太阳黑子数量的变化（作为太阳活动的衡量标准），所谓的小冰期类型事件（LIATE）以及北大西洋涛动（NAO）的变化。来自外部强迫因子的气候信号，可以用来解释巴伐利亚阿尔卑斯山前陆洪水频率的变化，结束于1930年。气候系统内的关系，如洪水频率与NAO的相关性，在1930年前后从后小冰期时期到现代气候最佳时期的过渡期间发生了变化。自然气候变率可能被人为气候变化所覆盖。
This paper describes the flood sensitivity of the Bavarian part of the Alpine Foreland of Germany and addresses different questions concerning climate variability and flood frequencies, from the 14th century until today. The focal point of the paper is the flood frequency of the superordinate spatial unit of the Bavarian Foreland. Based on written historical sources, the flood history of the Alpine Foreland of Germany can be reconstructed back to the 14th century. One major result is the occurrence of "flood-rich" and "flood-poor" episodes in almost cyclical sequences. Flood-rich periods, before the 16th century based on limited available data, were recorded in the periods 1300–1335, 1370–1450, 1470–1525, 1555–1590, 1615–1665, 1730–1780, 1820–1870, and 1910–1955 as well as in a ninth period beginning in 1980. The flood-rich periods are characterized by longer flood duration. Most of the flood-rich and flood-poor periods (in particular the beginning and the end of them) can be connected to changes in natural climate variability. These include changing sunspot numbers (as a measure of solar activity), so-called Little Ice Age type events (LIATEs) as well as changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Climate signals from external forcing factors, which could be used to explain the changing flood frequencies in the Bavarian Alpine Foreland, end in 1930. Relationships within the climate system such as the correlation of flood frequencies with the NAO have changed during the transition from the post Little Ice Age period to the Modern Climate Optimum around 1930. Natural climate variability might have been overlaid by anthropogenic climate change.