Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers During Protracted Recessions
Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers During Protracted Recessions
复制标题
长期衰退期间的中期财政乘数
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Poplawski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Salvatore Dell’Erba;Ksenia Koloskova;M. Poplawski
本文通过估计17个经合组织国家样本在长期衰退期间的中期财政乘数，研究了在持续低增长和高失业率时期财政整顿的后果。基于Jorda（2005）的地方预测方法，我们发现，在PR事件期间，与产出、就业和失业相关的五年期累积财政乘数显著高于1。这些结果表明，如果经济活动长期低于趋势水平，则应逐步实施旨在减轻公共债务负担的中期财政整顿计划。
The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda's (2005) local projection methodology, we find that cumulative fiscal multipliers related to output,employment and unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to reduce public debt burdens should proceed gradually if economic activity remains below trend for a prolonged period.