Compound Post‐Fire Flood Hazards Considering Infrastructure Sedimentation
Compound Post‐Fire Flood Hazards Considering Infrastructure Sedimentation
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DOI：
10.1029/2022ef002670
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发表时间：
2022-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ariane Jong‐Levinger;T. Banerjee;Douglas Houston;B. Sanders
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ariane Jong‐Levinger;T. Banerjee;Douglas Houston;B. Sanders
野火过后，洪水和泥石流的危害加剧，但由于火灾频率和严重程度、风暴期间的径流和泥沙通量以及降低基础设施能力的沉积之间的相互依赖，因此很难量化。在此，我们提出了一个随机模拟框架，用于根据野火和暴雨序列以及洪水基础设施内的泥沙堆积来估计洪水和泥石流的复合危害。将该框架应用于以南加州为代表的一个假想的分水岭，结果表明，在没有野火的情况下，目前的复合危险可能比高峰流量造成的边际危险大6倍，而根据未来野火频率的增加，未来的复合危险可能比边际危险大11倍。调查了许多敏感性，包括基础设施设计和维护，这被证明是减缓未来火灾后洪水危险增加的关键。
Flood and debris hazards are heightened following wildfires, but are challenging to quantify due to interdependence between fire frequency and severity, runoff and sediment fluxes during storms, and sedimentation that reduces infrastructure capacity. Herein we present a stochastic simulation framework to estimate compound flood and debris hazards from sequences of wildfires and rainstorms and the accumulation of sediment within flood infrastructure. Application of the framework to a hypothetical watershed representative of southern California shows that the present‐day compound hazard may be up to 6 times greater than the marginal hazard posed by peak flows in the absence of wildfire, and that future compound hazards could be up to 11 times greater than the marginal hazard based on future increases in wildfire frequency. Numerous sensitivities are investigated, including infrastructure design and maintenance, which are shown to be crucial for moderating future increases in post‐fire flood hazards.