Regime switching and wages in major league baseball under the reserve clause
Regime switching and wages in major league baseball under the reserve clause
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DOI：
10.1007/s11698-011-0067-2
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发表时间：
2012-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Murray, James
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Haupert, Michael;Murray, James
在整个世纪，美国人的工资增长了大约100倍，而职业棒球运动员的工资增长了450倍，但这种增长既不平稳也不稳定。我们使用了一个独特的和广泛的数据集的工资和性能变量的美国职业棒球大联盟投手，跨越400多名球员和60年的保留条款时代，以确定因素，决定工资和研究如何随着时间的推移，各种因素的重要性发生了变化。我们采用马尔可夫状态转换回归模型借用宏观经济学文献，它允许回归系数切换两个或多个值之间的外生随着时间的推移。这种方法可以让我们识别工资决定的变化，这些变化可能是由于联盟竞争力的变化，球员和球队之间相对议价能力的变化，或者其他未知或不可观察的因素而发生的。我们发现，即使美国职业棒球大联盟是一个严格控制的保留条款，有一个显着的转变，工资决定，从大萧条持续到第二次世界大战后，球员的工资更高度地与他们最近的表现。
Over the course of the twentieth century, American wages increased by a factor of about 100, while the wages of professional baseball players increased by a factor of 450, but that increase was neither smooth nor consistent. We use a unique and expansive dataset of salaries and performance variables of Major League Baseball pitchers that spans over 400 players and 60 years during the reserve clause era to identify factors that determine salaries and examine how the importance of various factors have changed over time. We employ a Markov regime-switching regression model borrowed from the macroeconomics literature, which allows regression coefficients to switch exogenously between two or more values as time progresses. This method lets us identify changes in wage determination that may have occurred because of a change in the league's competitiveness, a change in the relative bargaining power between players and teams, or other factors that may be unknown or unobservable. We find that even though Major League Baseball was a tightly controlled monopsony with the reserve clause, there was a significant shift in salary determination that lasted from the Great Depression until after World War II where players' salaries were more highly linked to their recent performance.