A Simulation and Stochastic Integer Programming Approach to Wildfire Initial Attack Planning
A Simulation and Stochastic Integer Programming Approach to Wildfire Initial Attack Planning
复制标题
野火初始攻击规划的模拟和随机整数规划方法
DOI：
10.5849/forsci.11-022
复制
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Spencer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lewis Ntaimo;Julian A. Gallego;Jianbang Gan;C. Stripling;Joshua Young;T. Spencer
野火是对公共安全、财产和森林的威胁。野火管理人员在火灾发生前将消防资源部署到消防基地，并在最初的攻击中将其派往火灾现场，以尽量减少可能造成不可接受的成本和损失的逃逸火灾数量。为了解决部署和调度问题，我们结合联合收割机火灾行为模拟和两阶段的随机整数规划模型称为显式火灾增长响应模型（EFGRM），使部署决策在第一阶段火灾发生前，并作出调度决策的最佳组合的资源发送到多个火灾在火灾发生后的第二阶段，在每个火灾天的情况。目标是最小化火灾逃逸的数量、资源部署的成本、预期的灭火成本和净值变化。我们使用我们的方法来定位推土机在得克萨斯州第12区（TX 12），在得克萨斯州东部的消防规划单位由得克萨斯州林务局（TFS）管理。结果表明，在本研究的时候，TX 12推土机的初始分布与历史火灾密度不一致。我们的方法的结果表明，在TX 12推土机的不同分布。F OR。S CI。59（1）：105-117。
: Wildfires are a threat to public safety, property, and forests. Wildfire managers deploy fighting resources to fire bases before fires occur and dispatch them to fires during the initial attack to minimize the number of escaped fires that can cause unacceptable costs and losses. To address the deployment and dispatch problem, we combine fire behavior simulation and a two-stage stochastic integer programming model called the explicit fire growth response model (EFGRM) to make deployment decisions in the first stage before fires occur and make dispatch decisions regarding the optimal mix of resources to send to multiple fires in each fire day scenario in the second stage after fires occur. The objective is to minimize the number of escaped fires, cost of resource deployment, expected suppression cost, and net value change. We use our methodology to position dozers in Texas District 12 (TX12), a fire planning unit in East Texas managed by the Texas Forest Service (TFS). The results reveal that the initial distribution of dozers in TX12 at the time of this study was not consistent with the historical density of fires. The results of our methodology suggest a different distribution of dozers across TX12. F OR . S CI . 59(1):105–117.