Impact of recent climate change and weather variability on the viability of UK viticulture – combining weather and climate records with producers' perspectives
Impact of recent climate change and weather variability on the viability of UK viticulture – combining weather and climate records with producers' perspectives
复制标题
近期气候变化和天气变化对英国葡萄栽培生存能力的影响——将天气和气候记录与生产者的观点相结合
DOI：
10.1111/ajgw.12215
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
S. Dorling
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andrew M. Nesbitt;Belinda Kemp;C. Steele;A. Lovett;S. Dorling
背景与目的
从2004年到2013年，英国的葡萄园面积增加了148%。观察到的气候变化和潜在的天气变化进行了评估，其对英国葡萄栽培的发展和可行性的影响。
方法和结果
英国葡萄种植者对气候变化和天气变化的看法得到了英国主要葡萄种植区气候和天气数据（1954-2013）定量分析的补充。生长季平均温度（GST）的变化进行了计算，并使用建模方法绘制。自1993年以来，GST一直高于13°C的凉爽气候葡萄栽培阈值。单独，商品及服务税并不能可靠地保证产量的可预测性，但确实与最近英国对起泡酒品种的关注更加密切相关。6月降水量与产量关系最密切。
结论
增加GST表面上表明英国凉爽气候葡萄栽培的机会增加，但严重掩盖了短期温度和降水事件的额外影响，以及持续威胁生产力的高度年际变化。最近的变化，在英国占主导地位的葡萄品种似乎增加了葡萄栽培的敏感性，年际天气变化。
研究意义
这是对英国葡萄种植业气候脆弱性的首次定量和定性分析，确定了威胁和机遇，并有助于指导未来气候变化影响的研究。
Background and Aims
From 2004 to 2013, the vineyard area in the United Kingdom (UK) increased 148%. Observed climate change and underlying weather variability were assessed for their influence on the development and viability of UK viticulture.
Methods and Results
The perspectives of grapegrowers in the UK on climate change and weather variability were complemented by a quantitative analysis of climate and weather data (1954–2013) for the main UK viticultural regions. The variability of growing season average temperature (GST) was calculated and also mapped using a modelling approach. Since 1993, GST has consistently been above the 13°C cool climate viticulture threshold. Alone, GST does not reliably assure yield predictability but does correlate more closely following the recent increasing UK focus on sparkling wine cultivars. June precipitation demonstrates the strongest relationship with yield.
Conclusions
Increasing GST superficially suggests enhanced UK cool climate viticultural opportunities, but critically masks the additional impact of shorter term temperature and precipitation events and a high degree of inter-annual variability that continues to threaten productivity. A recent change in dominant UK vine cultivars appears to have increased viticultural sensitivity to inter-annual weather variability.
Significance of the Study
This first quantitative and qualitative analysis of climate vulnerability in UK viticulture identifies threats and opportunities and helps steer studies of the impact of future climate change.