Historical (1700-2012) global multi-model estimates of the fire emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP)
Historical (1700-2012) global multi-model estimates of the fire emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP)
复制标题
火灾模拟比对项目 (FireMIP) 对火灾排放的历史（1700 年至 2012 年）全球多模型估计
DOI：
10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019
复制
发表时间：
2019-10-09
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Rabin, Sam S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Fang;Martin, Maria Val;Rabin, Sam S.
火灾排放物是碳和养分循环的重要组成部分，对气候和空气质量有着重大影响。动态全球植被模型（DGVM）与交互式火灾模拟提供了重要的估计长期和大规模的变化，火灾排放。在这里，我们提出了1700-2012年全球网格化历史火灾排放的第一个多模型估计，包括碳和33种痕量气体和气溶胶。该数据集基于9个DGVM的模拟，这些DGVM具有参与火灾建模相互比较项目（FireMIP）的不同最先进的全球火灾模型，使用相同的标准化协议和强迫数据，以及基于各种土地覆盖类型的实地和实验室研究的最新火灾排放因子表。我们通过与基于卫星的产品进行比较来评估当今火灾排放的模拟。评价结果表明，大多数DGVM模拟当今全球火灾排放总量的范围内的卫星产品。它们可以捕捉到热带稀树草原的高排放和干旱和植被稀疏地区的低排放，以及季节性的主要特征。然而，大多数模型未能模拟年际变化，部分原因是缺乏模拟泥炭火灾和热带森林砍伐火灾。在19世纪50年代之前，所有模型都显示出全球火灾排放的微弱趋势，这与CMIP 6的输入数据多源合并历史重建一致。另一方面，20世纪的DGVM之间的趋势是相当不同的，与一些模型显示增加和其他减少火灾排放，主要是由于在他们的模拟响应的差异，人口密度变化和土地利用和土地覆盖变化（LULCC）。我们的研究为进一步发展区域和全球多源合并历史重建，分析火灾排放的历史变化及其不确定性，以及量化火灾排放在地球系统中的作用提供了重要的数据集。它还强调了准确模拟火灾排放对LULCC和人口密度变化的响应的重要性，以减少火灾排放历史重建中的不确定性，并提供更可靠的未来预测。
Fire emissions are a critical component of carbon and nutrient cycles and strongly affect climate and air quality. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with interactive fire modeling provide important estimates for long-term and large-scale changes in fire emissions. Here we present the first multi-model estimates of global gridded historical fire emissions for 1700-2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols. The dataset is based on simulations of nine DGVMs with different state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), using the same and standardized protocols and forcing data, and the most up-to-date fire emission factor table based on field and laboratory studies in various land cover types. We evaluate the simulations of present-day fire emissions by comparing them with satellite-based products. The evaluation results show that most DGVMs simulate present-day global fire emission totals within the range of satellite-based products. They can capture the high emissions over the tropical savannas and low emissions over the arid and sparsely vegetated regions, and the main features of seasonality. However, most models fail to simulate the interannual variability, partly due to a lack of modeling peat fires and tropical deforestation fires. Before the 1850s, all models show only a weak trend in global fire emissions, which is consistent with the multi-source merged historical reconstructions used as input data for CMIP6. On the other hand, the trends are quite different among DGVMs for the 20th century, with some models showing an increase and others a decrease in fire emissions, mainly as a result of the discrepancy in their simulated responses to human population density change and land use and land cover change (LULCC). Our study provides an important dataset for further development of regional and global multi-source merged historical reconstructions, analyses of the historical changes in fire emissions and their uncertainties, and quantification of the role of fire emissions in the Earth system. It also highlights the importance of accurately modeling the responses of fire emissions to LULCC and population density change in reducing uncertainties in historical reconstructions of fire emissions and providing more reliable future projections.