Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures
Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268807008369
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发表时间：
2008-02-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vynnycky, E.;Edmunds, W. J.
许多国家计划在未来流感大流行期间关闭学校，尽管对潜在影响知之甚少。我们应用大流行性流感的传播动力学模型，从1957年（亚洲）流感大流行的咨询，血清学和临床数据，从英国，估计的基本繁殖数（R-0），感染者的比例谁经历的临床症状和学校/托儿所关闭的影响。亚洲流感的R-0约为1.8，估计60- 65%的感染者出现临床症状。在未来的大流行期间，关闭学校/托儿所只能使疫情规模减少很小一部分（
Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (R-0), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The R-0 for Asian influenza was about 1.8 and 60-65 % of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (