Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic - The model behind the documentary
Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic - The model behind the documentary
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2018.03.003
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发表时间：
2018-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Gog, Julia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Klepac, Petra;Kissler, Stephen;Gog, Julia
为了纪念1918年流感大流行一百周年，英国广播公司(BBC)制作了一部75分钟的纪录片，名为《传染病！英国广播公司四大流行病》。这部纪录片的核心是一项全国性的公民科学实验，在此期间，英国的志愿者可以下载并使用一款名为BBC大流行的定制手机应用程序，并贡献他们一天的行动和联系数据。作为数学团队，我们被要求使用该应用程序的数据来建立和运行流行病如何在英国传播的模型。主要结果在电视节目中公布。在这里，我们详细地记录了这个模型是如何工作的，以及我们是如何根据来自BBC大流行应用程序的令人难以置信的丰富数据来塑造它的。我们几乎没有触及该应用程序提供的志愿者数据的深度。本文介绍的工作的唯一目的是对英国的一次大流行性流行性感冒疫情进行单一、详细的模拟。当BBC大流行应用程序完成其采集期后，将向科学界提供庞大的数据集(预计2019年初)。这将需要更多的时间和来自广泛研究人员的投入来充分利用这个数据集所提供的所有东西。但在这里，至少我们能够利用BBC大流行数据的一些力量，做出一些我们希望能抓住广大观众的兴趣和参与的东西。
To mark the centenary of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the broadcasting network BBC have put together a 75-min documentary called 'Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic'. Central to the documentary is a nationwide citizen science experiment, during which volunteers in the United Kingdom could download and use a custom mobile phone app called BBC Pandemic, and contribute their movement and contact data for a day.As the 'maths team', we were asked to use the data from the app to build and run a model of how a pandemic would spread in the UK. The headline results are presented in the TV programme. Here, we document in detail how the model works, and how we shaped it according the incredibly rich data coming from the BBC Pandemic app.We have barely scratched the depth of the volunteer data available from the app. The work presented in this article had the sole purpose of generating a single detailed simulation of a pandemic influenza-like outbreak in the UK. When the BBC Pandemic app has completed its collection period, the vast dataset will be made available to the scientific community (expected early 2019). It will take much more time and input from a broad range of researchers to fully exploit all that this dataset has to offer. But here at least we were able to harness some of the power of the BBC Pandemic data to contribute something which we hope will capture the interest and engagement of a broad audience.