AFTER THE FALL: EAST ASIAN EXCHANGE RATES SINCE THE CRISIS
AFTER THE FALL: EAST ASIAN EXCHANGE RATES SINCE THE CRISIS
复制标题
秋季之后：危机以来的东亚汇率
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
--
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Aysan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kinan Salim;Mustafa Disli;R. Nagayev;Abubakar Ilyas;A. Aysan
汇率是东亚金融危机的中心问题。十年后，我们学到了什么？本文的重点是该地区的汇率制度和汇率联盟。这篇文章的目的是回顾和展望——回顾迄今为止发生的事情，并评估未来的前景。分析解决了三个关键问题：(1)汇率在东亚危机中扮演了什么角色？(2)如何解释1997-98年以来的货币策略？(3)该地区未来汇率制度的前景如何？有证据表明，汇率制度在危机中的作用是间接的，而不是直接的；危机前的货币策略主要是通过鼓励高风险的市场行为模式，从而加剧了各国经济的脆弱性。反过来，这有助于解释自1997-98年以来，大多数地区经济体的做法高度连续性。改革已经开始——但主要是在相关政策领域，而不是在汇率制度本身。原因很简单。汇率制度被视为一种工具，而不是其本身的目的，因此只有在似乎适合于更广泛的发展目标的情况下才进行调整。尽管存在风险，但各国政府一直抵制并可能继续抵制在汇率策略上进行更激进的创新。
-2-ABSTRACT Exchange rates were at the center of the East Asian financial crisis. A decade later, what has been learned? This essay focuses on exchange-rate regimes and alignments in the region. The aim of the essay is both retrospective and prospective – to review what has happened to date and to evaluate prospects for the future. Analysis addresses a trio of critical questions: (1) What role did exchange rates play in East Asia’s crisis? (2) What explains currency strategies in the period since 1997-98? (3) What is the outlook for the region’s exchange-rate regimes in the future? Evidence suggests that the role of exchange rate-regimes in the crisis was more indirect than direct; pre-crisis currency strategies contributed to events mainly by encouraging risky modes of market behavior that added to the fragility of national economies. In turn, this helps to explain the high degree of continuity of practice in most regional economies since 1997-98. Reforms have been instituted – but mainly in related policy areas rather than in exchange-rate regimes themselves. The reason is plain. Exchange-rate regimes are seen as instrumental, not as an end in themselves, and therefore have been adjusted only where change seemed appropriate to serve broader developmental goals. Despite the risks involved, governments have resisted and are likely to continue to resist more radical innovations in their currency strategies.