The Interaction of Natural and Vaccine-Induced Immunity with Social Distancing Predicts the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic.
The Interaction of Natural and Vaccine-Induced Immunity with Social Distancing Predicts the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic.
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DOI：
10.1128/mbio.02617-20
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发表时间：
2020-10-23
期刊：
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Hawkes MT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Good MF;Hawkes MT
我们的社会能否有效地向前发展，将取决于如何遏制SARS-CoV-2病毒的传播。对病毒的免疫力对这个等式至关重要。严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）免疫的存在和性质目前尚不清楚;然而，中和抗体被认为发挥主要作用，研究其他冠状病毒的数据表明，感染后将发生持续长达1年的部分临床免疫。我们展示了免疫力如何根据其持久性与当前的社会实践一起限制病毒的传播。我们进一步表明，一种有效性为50%并被50%的人口服用的疫苗将防止进一步的生命损失，前提是仍然实行社会距离，并且免疫力不会迅速减弱。
The ability of our society to function effectively moving forward will depend on how the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is contained. Immunity to the virus will be critical to this equation. The existence and nature of immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are currently unknown; however, neutralizing antibodies are thought to play the major role and data from studying other coronaviruses suggest that partial clinical immunity lasting up to 1 year will occur postinfection. We show how immunity, depending on its durability, may work with current social practices to limit the spread of the virus. We further show that a vaccine that is 50% effective and taken by 50% of the population will prevent further loss of life, providing that social distancing is still practiced and that immunity does not wane quickly.