THE FUTURE OF BIODIVERSITY
THE FUTURE OF BIODIVERSITY
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DOI：
10.1126/science.269.5222.347
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发表时间：
1995-07-21
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
BROOKS, TM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
PIMM, SL;RUSSELL, GJ;BROOKS, TM
最近的灭绝率是人类之前的100到1000倍，这些灭绝率是众所周知的，但在分类上不同的群体来自不同的环境。如果所有目前被认为“受威胁”的物种在下个世纪灭绝，那么未来的灭绝速度将是现在的10倍。一些受威胁的物种将在本世纪存活下来，但许多现在没有受到威胁的物种将灭亡。物种丰富的地区（特有地区）主导着全球灭绝模式。虽然新技术提供了栖息地丧失的细节，但由于我们对哪些地区有丰富的地方性知识有限，对未来灭绝的估计受到阻碍。
Recent extinction rates are 100 to 1000 times their pre-human levels in well-known, but taxonomically diverse groups from widely different environments. If all species currently deemed ''threatened'' become extinct in the next century, then future extinction rates will be 10 times recent rates. Some threatened species will survive the century, but many species not now threatened will succumb. Regions rich in species found only within them (endemics) dominate the global patterns of extinction. Although new technology provides details of habitat losses, estimates of future extinctions are hampered by our limited knowledge of which areas are rich in endemics.