Are there spatial and temporal correlations in the incidence distribution of scrub typhus in Korea?
Are there spatial and temporal correlations in the incidence distribution of scrub typhus in Korea?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.phrp.2013.01.002
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发表时间：
2013-02-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Huh, Sun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Noh, Maengseok;Lee, Youngjo;Huh, Sun
目的：基于空间和时间相关性，应用分层广义线性模型（HGLM）估计韩国2001年至2011年恙虫病的传播模式。方法：根据韩国疾病控制和预防中心报告的2001年至2011年恙虫病发病的描述性统计数据，通过HGLM估计空间和时间相关性。根据年龄、性别和年份的发病率也通过九个 HGLM 中的最佳拟合模型进行了估计。绘制疾病地图以查看该疾病的年度区域传播情况。结果：2001年至2011年报告的恙虫病病例总数为51,136例：男性18,628例（36.4%）；女性，32,508 人（63.6%）。选择的最佳拟合模型是恙虫病传播的空间模型（马尔可夫随机场模型）和时间模型（一阶自回归模型）的组合。 10月初发病高峰为28.80/10万人，最佳拟合HGLM在63.3岁人群中发病高峰为40.17/10万人。疾病地图显示疾病从中南部地区向全国范围传播，江原道（省）、庆尚北道（省）和首尔除外。结论：韩国恙虫病的传播与邻近地区以及前一年的发病率存在相关性。根据疾病地图，除非在农村地区采取持续积极的措施来防止接触恙螨媒介，否则在不久的将来我们不太可能看到发病率有任何下降。
OBJECTIVES: A hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was applied to estimate the transmission pattern of scrub typhus from 2001 to 2011 in the Republic of Korea, based on spatial and temporal correlation.METHODS: Based on the descriptive statistics of scrub typhus incidence from 2001 to 2011 reported to the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the spatial and temporal correlations were estimated by HGLM. Incidences according to age, sex, and year were also estimated by the best-fit model out of nine HGLMs. A disease map was drawn to view the annual regional spread of the disease.RESULTS: The total number of scrub typhus cases reported from 2001 to 2011 was 51,136: male, 18,628 (36.4%); female, 32,508 (63.6%). The best-fit model selected was a combination of the spatial model (Markov random-field model) and temporal model (first order autoregressive model) of scrub typhus transmission. The peak incidence was 28.80 per 100,000 persons in early October and the peak incidence was 40.17 per 100,000 persons in those aged 63.3 years old by the best-fit HGLM. The disease map showed the spread of disease from the southern central area to a nationwide area, excepting Gangwon-do (province), Gyeongsangbuk-do (province), and Seoul.CONCLUSION: In the transmission of scrub typhus in Korea, there was a correlation to the incidence of adjacent areas, as well as that of the previous year. According to the disease map, we are unlikely to see any decrease in the incidence in the near future, unless ongoing aggressive measures to prevent the exposure to the vector, chigger mites, in rural areas, are put into place.