Outlook of the World Steel Cycle Based on the Stock and Flow Dynamics
Outlook of the World Steel Cycle Based on the Stock and Flow Dynamics
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DOI：
10.1021/es100044n
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发表时间：
2010-08-15
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Adachi, Yoshihiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hatayama, Hiroki;Daigo, Ichiro;Adachi, Yoshihiro
我们提出了一个全面的分析，在未来的钢铁使用编制使用动态物质流分析（MFA）的动态MFA为42个国家描绘了全球在使用的股票和流量到2005年底。在2005年钢材库存变化的基础上，结合各国经济增长情况，对未来钢材库存增长进行了预测。在"库存驱动流量"的新概念下，利用动态分析方法对未来钢铁需求进行了预测。结果表明，2005年世界钢铁库存达到1270亿t，在过去25年中翻了一番。2005年的世界库存主要包括建筑（60%）和车辆（10%）。这些最终用途的库存将在2050年达到550亿吨，受亚洲钢铁需求增长10倍的推动，2025年将达到180亿吨，然后略有下降，并因建筑物更换而再次上升。一开始是以建筑为主，然后到2025年以后，建筑需求减少，而车辆需求增加。这项研究因此提供了钢铁库存和流向未来的动态机制，这有助于设计可持续的钢铁使用
We present a comprehensive analysis of steel use in the future compiled using dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) A dynamic MFA for 42 countries depicted the global in-use stock and flow up to the end of 2005. On the basis of the transition of steel stock for 2005, the growth of future steel stock was then estimated considering the economic growth for every country. Future steel demand was estimated using dynamic analysis under the new concept of "stocks drive flows" The significant results follow World steel stock reached 127 billion t in 2005, and has doubled in the last 25 years. The world stock in 2005 mainly consisted of construction (60%) and vehicles (10%). Stock in these end uses will reach 55 billion t in 2050, driven by a 10-fold increase in Asia Steel demand will reach 18 billion t in 2025, then slightly decrease, and rise again by replacement of buildings The forecast of demand clearly represents the industrial shift; at first the increase is dominated by construction, and then, after 2025, demand for construction decreases and demand for vehicles increases instead This study thus provides the dynamic mechanism of steel stock and flow toward the future, which contributes to the design of sustainable steel use