Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally
Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally
复制标题
大多数地区和全球持续极端天气导致的降水量正在增加
DOI：
10.1029/2019gl081898
复制
发表时间：
2019-06-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Wu, Zhengfang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Du, Haibo;Alexander, Lisa V.;Wu, Zhengfang
极端降水往往持续多天，持续时间可变，但通常在固定的持续时间进行检查。在这里，我们表明，考虑极端持续降水的完整事件与可变的持续时间，而不是一个固定的时间段，是一个必要的度量来解释变化的降水的复杂性。观测到的全球平均年最大降水量在持续极端情况下明显强于（49.5%）每日极端情况。然而，与每日极端事件相比，全球观测和模拟的相对增长率对于持续极端事件都较低，特别是对于南半球和0 - 45°N纬度带的大区域。气候模型还显示，在全球变暖预测中，每日极端和持续极端之间的幅度和局部平均变化的部分甚至迹象存在重大差异。因此，极端降水量的变化比以前报告的更为复杂，未来的气候变化评估应考虑到持续时间不同的极端降水事件。
Extreme precipitation often persists for multiple days with variable duration but has usually been examined at fixed duration. Here we show that considering extreme persistent precipitation by complete event with variable duration, rather than a fixed temporal period, is a necessary metric to account for the complexity of changing precipitation. Observed global mean annual‐maximum precipitation is significantly stronger (49.5%) for persistent extremes than daily extremes. However, both globally observed and modeled rates of relative increases are lower for persistent extremes compared to daily extremes, especially for Southern Hemisphere and large regions in the 0‐45°N latitude band. Climate models also show significant differences in the magnitude and partly even the sign of local mean changes between daily and persistent extremes in global warming projections. Changes in extreme precipitation therefore are more complex than previously reported, and extreme precipitation events with varying duration should be taken into account for future climate change assessments.