Recent exposure to environmental stochasticity does not determine the resilience of natural populations
Recent exposure to environmental stochasticity does not determine the resilience of natural populations
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最近的环境随机性并不能决定自然种群的恢复能力
DOI：
10.1101/2022.04.28.489852
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Cant J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cant J
不断升级的气候和人为压力使世界各地的生态系统受到越来越频繁的干扰。然而，我们预测自然种群对这些干扰的反应的能力受到了有限的理解的阻碍，因为我们对随机环境如何塑造种群弹性的理解有限。相反，自然种群对正在进行的全球变化的适应力和脆弱性往往是根据其当代环境随机性的暴露来推定的。为了测试这一假设的有效性，我们研究了弹性属性之间的关联（例如，抗性和恢复），以及当地环境随机性的测量（例如，光谱频率和非生物范围）;整理来自369种动物，植物和藻类物种的2，242个种群的数据。出乎意料的是，最近的非生物随机制度，从过去的50年没有预测的固有能力的人口抵抗或恢复的干扰。相反，人口弹性是强烈影响物种之间的系统发育关系，生存和发展的投资塑造他们的反应随机制度。与经典的假设，暴露于最近的环境变化赋予更大的能力，以科普当前和未来的全球变化，我们的研究结果表明，人口弹性是进化过程和/或深时环境regimes.Significance statementPopulations的后果，目前忍受更多的变量非生物条件下，往往是不太容易受到未来气候变化的增加。然而，如果不确定非生物变异性与种群抵抗和恢复干扰的能力之间的联系（即，他们的韧性），我们无法预测正在进行的社区重组的后果。通过评估2,242个动物、植物和藻类种群的非生物变异性和弹性属性之间的关系，我们怀疑当代暴露于更频繁的环境变化会赋予科普未来全球变化的更大能力的假设。相反，自然种群的弹性属性似乎是在长期的进化时间框架内塑造的，因此不是对最近经历的反应。
Escalating climatic and anthropogenic pressures expose ecosystems worldwide to increasingly frequent disturbances. Yet, our ability to forecast the responses of natural populations to these disturbances is impeded by a limited understanding for how exposure to stochastic environments shapes population resilience. Instead, the resilience, and vulnerability, of natural populations to ongoing global change is often presumed based on their contemporary exposure to environmental stochasticity. To test the validity of this assumption, we investigated the association between the resilience attributes (e.g., resistance and recovery) of natural animal and plant populations, and measures of local environmental stochasticity (e.g., spectral frequency and abiotic range); collating data from 2,242 populations across 369 animal, plant, and algal species. Unexpectedly, recent abiotic stochasticity regimes from the past 50 years do not predict the inherent ability of populations to resist or recover from disturbances. Instead, population resilience is strongly affected by phylogenetic relationships among species, with survival and developmental investments shaping their responses to stochastic regimes. Contrary to the classical assumption that exposure to recent environmental shifts confers a greater ability to cope with current and future global change, our findings suggest that population resilience is a consequence of evolutionary processes and/or deep-time environmental regimes.Significance statementPopulations that currently endure more variable abiotic conditions are often expected to be less vulnerable to future increases in climatic variability. However, without defining the link between abiotic variability and the capacity for populations to resist and recover following disturbances (i.e., their resilience), we cannot predict the consequences of ongoing community reassembly. Evaluating the association between measures of abiotic variability and the resilience attributes of 2,242 animal, plant, and algae populations, we discredit the assumption that contemporary exposure to more frequent environmental shifts confers a greater ability to cope with future global change. Instead, the resilience attributes of natural populations appear to have been moulded over longer-term evolutionary timeframes and are thus not a response to more recent experiences.
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