The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United States.
The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United States.
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DOI：
10.1093/cid/ciab079
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发表时间：
2021-12-16
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Galvani AP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moghadas SM;Vilches TN;Zhang K;Wells CR;Shoukat A;Singer BH;Meyers LA;Neuzil KM;Langley JM;Fitzpatrick MC;Galvani AP
为应对2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行，全球疫苗开发工作已加快。我们评估了2剂COVID-19疫苗接种活动对降低美国发病率、住院率和死亡率的影响。我们开发了一个基于病原体的严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）传播模型，并将其与美国人口统计学和年龄特异性COVID-19结果进行了参数化。卫生保健工作者和高风险个人优先接种疫苗，而18岁以下的儿童不接种疫苗。我们认为，间隔21天接种2剂疫苗后，对疾病的有效性为95%，在284天内实现总人口40%的疫苗覆盖率。我们改变了疫苗对感染的有效性，并指定10%的预先存在的人群免疫力作为基础情况。该模型被校准为有效再生数1.2，占目前在美国的非药物干预。在300天内，接种疫苗将总发病率从未接种疫苗的9.0%（95%可信区间[CrI]：8.4%-9.4%）降至4.6%（95%可信区间[CrI]：4.3%-5.0%）。在65岁及以上的人中观察到最高的相对减少（54%-62%）。接种疫苗显著减少了不良结局，同期非重症监护室（ICU）住院、ICU住院和死亡分别减少了63.5%（95% CrI：60.3%-66.7%）、65.6%（95% CrI：62.2%-68.6%）和69.3%（95% CrI：65.5%-73.1%）。我们的研究结果表明，即使对感染的保护有限，接种疫苗也可以对缓解COVID-19疫情产生重大影响。然而，持续遵守非药物干预措施是实现这一影响的关键。即使只有成年人接种疫苗，对疾病有95%有效性的疫苗也可以大大降低未来的发病率，住院率和死亡率。非药物干预措施仍然是疫情应对的重要组成部分，因为疫苗是随着时间的推移分发的。
Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States. We developed an agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, whereas children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection and specified 10% preexisting population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current nonpharmaceutical interventions in the United States. Vaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 4.3%–5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI: 8.4%–9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54%–62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI: 60.3%–66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI: 62.2%–68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI: 65.5%–73.1%), respectively, across the same period. Our results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact. Vaccination with a 95% efficacy against disease could substantially mitigate future attack rates, hospitalizations, and deaths, even if only adults are vaccinated. Nonpharmaceutical interventions remain an important part of outbreak response as vaccines are distributed over time.
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DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm6915e3
发表时间：
2020-04-17
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
--
作者：
Garg S;Kim L;Whitaker M;O'Halloran A;Cummings C;Holstein R;Prill M;Chai SJ;Kirley PD;Alden NB;Kawasaki B;Yousey-Hindes K;Niccolai L;Anderson EJ;Openo KP;Weigel A;Monroe ML;Ryan P;Henderson J;Kim S;Como-Sabetti K;Lynfield R;Sosin D;Torres S;Muse A;Bennett NM;Billing L;Sutton M;West N;Schaffner W;Talbot HK;Aquino C;George A;Budd A;Brammer L;Langley G;Hall AJ;Fry A
通讯作者：
Fry A
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32009-2
发表时间：
2020-10-24
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Anand S;Montez-Rath M;Han J;Bozeman J;Kerschmann R;Beyer P;Parsonnet J;Chertow GM
通讯作者：
Chertow GM
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
He, Xi;Lau, Eric H. Y.;Leung, Gabriel M.
通讯作者：
Leung, Gabriel M.
影响因子：
33.9
作者：
Kimball, Anne;Hatfield, Kelly M.;Jernigan, John A.
通讯作者：
Jernigan, John A.
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Jarvis, Christopher I.;Van Zandvoort, Kevin;Edmunds, W. John
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W. John