Are Land‐Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?
Are Land‐Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?
复制标题
东南亚土地利用变化排放量是减少还是增加？
DOI：
10.1029/2020gb006909
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
他28名
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kondo Masayuki;Sitch Stephen;Ciais Philippe;Achard Frederic;Kato Etsushi;他28名
东南亚是一个在过去60年中以活跃的土地利用变化（LUC）而闻名的地区;然而，过去几十年中LUC活动导致的净CO2吸收和释放（净LUC通量）的趋势如何变化仍然不确定。基于过程模型的净LUC通量的不确定性水平如此之高，以至于不能得出新的估计值一定比旧的更可靠的结论。在这里，我们研究了东南亚20世纪80年代至21世纪10年代的净LUC通量估计，这些估计来自较旧和较新的全球植被模型模拟（分别为TRENDY v2和v7），以及用于运行这些模拟的强迫数据，沿着两个簿记估计（H&N和BLUE）。这些估计产生了两个对比鲜明的历史LUC转变，例如TRENDY v2和H&N显示了从1980年代到1990年代的排放增加到2000年代的排放下降的转变，而TRENDY v7和BLUE显示了相反的转变。我们发现，这些对比鲜明的转变起源于LUC强迫数据的更新，减少了森林面积的损失，在20世纪90年代。对遥感研究、大气逆温以及东南亚林业和环境政策历史的进一步评价支持了1990年代排放量达到峰值并随后下降的说法。然而，东南亚LUC排放量是否继续下降仍不确定，因为近年来的关键过程，如泥炭林向油棕种植园的转化，尚未在强迫数据中得到体现，这表明需要进一步修订。
Southeast Asia is a region known for active land‐use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO2uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process‐based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book‐keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil‐palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision.