Automated Solar Activity Prediction: A hybrid computer platform using machine learning and solar imaging for automated prediction of solar flares

Automated Solar Activity Prediction: A hybrid computer platform using machine learning and solar imaging for automated prediction of solar flares
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自动太阳活动预测:使用机器学习和太阳成像自动预测太阳耀斑的混合计算机平台

DOI:
10.1029/2008sw000401
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发表时间:
2009
期刊:
影响因子:
3.7
通讯作者:
Colak T
Colak T
中科院分区:
地球科学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Colak T

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太阳数据的真实的实时处理,特别是对空间气象应用的重要性不断增加。在本文中,我们提出了一个自动化的混合计算机平台,使用SOHO/迈克尔逊多普勒成像仪图像进行短期预测。这个平台被称为自动太阳活动预测工具(ASAP)。该系统集成了图像处理和机器学习来提供这些预测。基于机器学习的系统旨在分析多年的太阳黑子和耀斑数据,以创建可以使用基于计算机的学习规则表示的关联。还创建了一个基于成像的真实的实时系统,该系统提供自动检测,分组,然后根据麦金托什分类对最近的太阳黑子进行分类,并集成在该系统中。成像系统自动提取太阳黑子区域的属性,并使用机器学习规则进行处理,以生成真实的实时预测。本文使用了几种性能测量标准,并提供了结果。同时,采用二次评分法对1999 ~ 2002年ASAP与NOAA空间天气预报中心(SWPC)的预报结果进行了比较,结果表明ASAP的预报精度高于SWPC。
The importance of real‐time processing of solar data especially for space weather applications is increasing continuously. In this paper, we present an automated hybrid computer platform for the short‐term prediction of significant solar flares using SOHO/Michelson Doppler Imager images. This platform is called the Automated Solar Activity Prediction tool (ASAP). This system integrates image processing and machine learning to deliver these predictions. A machine learning‐based system is designed to analyze years of sunspot and flare data to create associations that can be represented using computer‐based learning rules. An imaging‐based real‐time system that provides automated detection, grouping, and then classification of recent sunspots based on the McIntosh classification is also created and integrated within this system. The properties of the sunspot regions are extracted automatically by the imaging system and processed using the machine learning rules to generate the real‐time predictions. Several performance measurement criteria are used and the results are provided in this paper. Also, quadratic score is used to compare the prediction results of ASAP with NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) between 1999 and 2002, and it is shown that ASAP generates more accurate predictions compared to SWPC.
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