Implications of Mean-Reverting Measurement Error for Longitudinal Studies of Wages and Employment
Implications of Mean-Reverting Measurement Error for Longitudinal Studies of Wages and Employment
复制标题
均值回归测量误差对工资和就业纵向研究的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Gary Solon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bonggeun Kim;Gary Solon
本文基于纵向调查数据，考察了均值回归测量误差对两个有影响力的文献的影响：(1)关于经济周期中实际工资变化的文献；(2)关于劳动力供给的跨期替代的文献。对均值回归测量误差的考虑表明，实际工资可能比最近的纵向研究表明的更具顺周期性。我们还发现，如果收入和工作时间的变化是用不同程度的均值回归来衡量的，那么在跨期替代研究中常用的工具变量估计是不一致的，但由此产生的不一致的程度似乎很小。
This note examines the implications of mean-reverting mea-surement error for two influential literatures based on longitudinal survey data: (1) the literature on real wage variation over the business cycle and (2) the literature on intertemporal substitution in labor supply. Accounting for mean-reverting measurement error suggests that real wages may be even more procyclical than indicated by recent longitudinal studies. We also find that the instrumental variables estimator commonly used in intertemporal substitution studies is inconsistent if changes in earnings and hours of work are measured with different degrees of mean reversion, but the magnitude of the resulting inconsistency appears to be small.