Numerical rivers: A synthetic streamflow generator for water resources vulnerability assessments
Numerical rivers: A synthetic streamflow generator for water resources vulnerability assessments
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DOI：
10.1002/2014wr016827
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发表时间：
2015-07
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
E. Borgomeo;C. Farmer;Jim W Hall
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Borgomeo;C. Farmer;Jim W Hall
水供应短缺的脆弱性取决于径流变化与水系统的管理和需求之间复杂的相互作用。评估供水对径流潜在变化的脆弱性需要能够产生广泛的可能径流序列的方法。本文提出了一种生成合成月径流序列的方法，该方法再现了历史记录的统计数据，并可以表达用户指定的径流特征中气候引起的变化。径流序列的数值模拟，通过随机抽样从一个参数或非参数分布拟合的历史数据，同时洗牌的时间序列中的值，直到一个序列匹配的一组所需的时间属性生成。所需的属性指定在一个目标函数，这是使用模拟退火优化。目标函数中的属性可以被操纵来生成径流序列，这些序列表现出气候引起的径流特征变化，例如年际变率或持续性。该方法适用于每月径流数据从泰晤士河在金斯顿（英国）生成序列，重现历史径流统计在每月和每年的时间尺度，并生成扰动合成序列表达短期的持续性和年际变化。
The vulnerability of water supplies to shortage depends on the complex interplay between streamflow variability and the management and demands of the water system. Assessments of water supply vulnerability to potential changes in streamflow require methods capable of generating a wide range of possible streamflow sequences. This paper presents a method to generate synthetic monthly streamflow sequences that reproduce the statistics of the historical record and that can express climate‐induced changes in user‐specified streamflow characteristics. The streamflow sequences are numerically simulated through random sampling from a parametric or a nonparametric distribution fitted to the historical data while shuffling the values in the time series until a sequence matching a set of desired temporal properties is generated. The desired properties are specified in an objective function which is optimized using simulated annealing. The properties in the objective function can be manipulated to generate streamflow sequences that exhibit climate‐induced changes in streamflow characteristics such as interannual variability or persistence. The method is applied to monthly streamflow data from the Thames River at Kingston (UK) to generate sequences that reproduce historical streamflow statistics at the monthly and annual time scales and to generate perturbed synthetic sequences expressing changes in short‐term persistence and interannual variability.