Predictability of population displacement after the 2010 Haiti earthquake
Predictability of population displacement after the 2010 Haiti earthquake
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1203882109
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发表时间：
2012-07-17
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Holme, Petter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lu, Xin;Bengtsson, Linus;Holme, Petter
最严重的灾难会导致人口巨大的运动。这些运动使救济组织很难有效地吸引有需要的人。在灾难期间理解和预测受影响人的位置是有效的人道主义救济行动和长期社会重建的关键。我们与海地最大的手机运营商（Digicel）合作，分析了从前42天到2010年1月12日遭受毁灭性海地地震后的341 d期间190万手机用户的运动。 ，人口变动导致首都港口太子的人口估计减少了23％。地震后，人们的行进距离和运动轨迹的大小都在增长。这些发现与灾难发生后出现的疾病相结合，表明人们的运动将变得越来越难以预测。取而代之的是，在地震后的三个月内，人们的轨迹的可预测性仍然很高，甚至略有增加。此外，地震发生后的头三个星期，在正常时期的行动模式高度相关，特别是与人们具有巨大社会纽带的地点相关的人的目的地。对于离开太子港的人们来说，他们在城市外的逗留时间以及返回的时间，都遵循偏斜，肥胖的分布。研究结果表明，灾难期间的人口运动可能比以前想象的要明显更可预测。
Most severe disasters cause large population movements. These movements make it difficult for relief organizations to efficiently reach people in need. Understanding and predicting the locations of affected people during disasters is key to effective humanitarian relief operations and to long-term societal reconstruction. We collaborated with the largest mobile phone operator in Haiti (Digicel) and analyzed the movements of 1.9 million mobile phone users during the period from 42 d before, to 341 d after the devastating Haiti earthquake of January 12, 2010. Nineteen days after the earthquake, population movements had caused the population of the capital Port-au-Prince to decrease by an estimated 23%. Both the travel distances and size of people's movement trajectories grew after the earthquake. These findings, in combination with the disorder that was present after the disaster, suggest that people's movements would have become less predictable. Instead, the predictability of people's trajectories remained high and even increased slightly during the three-month period after the earthquake. Moreover, the destinations of people who left the capital during the first three weeks after the earthquake was highly correlated with their mobility patterns during normal times, and specifically with the locations in which people had significant social bonds. For the people who left Port-au-Prince, the duration of their stay outside the city, as well as the time for their return, all followed a skewed, fat-tailed distribution. The findings suggest that population movements during disasters may be significantly more predictable than previously thought.