Regional variability in relationships between climate and dengue/DHF in Indonesia
Regional variability in relationships between climate and dengue/DHF in Indonesia
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9493.2007.00300.x
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发表时间：
2007-11-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Pfueller, Sharron
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arcari, Paula;Tapper, Nigel;Pfueller, Sharron
自1970年以来，登革热和登革出血热(登革出血热)在全球的分布、频率和强度急剧增加。在印度尼西亚，与其他地方一样，埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊这两种主要媒介的地理分布和行为以及由此产生的疾病传播动态受到气候的强烈影响。根据1992-2001年的温度、降雨量、雨量异常、湿度和南方涛动指数的月度数据，对月发病率数据进行了审查。集中在8个省份，观察到登革热/登革出血热发病率与至少一个气候变量之间存在显著的皮尔逊相关性(r=+/-0.2至+/-0.43；P<；0.05)。多元回归分析表明，每个省的两个或三个气候变量(P<；0.1-0.01)可解释发病率变异的12.9-24.5%。降雨似乎是影响发病地理分布和时间模式的主要气候因素，而温度似乎对疫情强度起着关键作用。所观察到的关联的强度和性质在区域和时间上的广泛差异导致确定了三组省份，在这些省份中，登革热/登革热发病率的增加与降雨量增加、降雨量减少和/或对气候变异性的高度易感性有不同程度的关联。虽然气候因素在解释登革热/登革出血热暴发的时间和强度方面发挥了重要作用，但似乎也涉及到当地环境特有的广泛其他因素--这些信息可能有助于预测和缓解区域登革热/出血热暴发。
Since 1970, the worldwide distribution, frequency and intensity of epidemics of dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) have increased dramatically. In Indonesia, as elsewhere, the geographic distribution and behaviour of the two main vectors - Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus - and the consequent transmission dynamics of the disease are strongly influenced by climate. Monthly incidence data were examined in relation to monthly data for temperature, rainfall, rainfall anomalies, humidity and the Southern Oscillation Index for 1992-2001. Focusing on eight provinces, significant Pearson correlations were observed between dengue/DHF incidence and at least one climate variable (r = +/- 0.2 to +/- 0.43; P < 0.05). Multiple regression analyses showed that 12.9-24.5 per cent of variance in incidence was explained by two or three climate variables in each province (P < 0.1-0.01). Rainfall appears to be the principal climatic agent affecting the geographic distribution and temporal pattern of incidence while temperature appears to play a critical role in outbreak intensity. Wide regional and temporal variations in the strength and nature of the observed associations led to the identification of three groups of provinces where increases in dengue/DHF incidence were variously associated with increased rainfall, decreased rainfall and/or high susceptibility to climate variability. Although climatic factors play an important role in explaining the timing and intensity of dengue/DHF outbreaks, a wide range of other factors specific to local environments also appear to be involved - information that may assist in the prediction and mitigation of regional dengue/DHF outbreaks.