Seasonal variation in airborne infection risk in schools due to changes in ventilation inferred from monitored carbon dioxide.
Seasonal variation in airborne infection risk in schools due to changes in ventilation inferred from monitored carbon dioxide.
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DOI：
10.1111/ina.12818
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发表时间：
2021-07
期刊：
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Linden PF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vouriot CVM;Burridge HC;Noakes CJ;Linden PF
2020年，世界受到新冠疫情的影响。我们这个日益全球化的世界因一种新疾病的出现而受到重大影响，这不是第一次，也不会是最后一次。在北半球的大部分地区，学年从9月开始，对许多国家来说，2020年9月标志着因新冠疫情强制关闭一段时间后全面复课。在本文中，我们关注疾病的空气传播，并研究在学校环境中传播的可能性。了解新冠病毒通过空气传播可能给学生、教师及其更广泛的社会群体带来的感染风险至关重要。我们使用来自英国11所不同学校的45间教室的监测二氧化碳数据，来估计在由相同师生经常使用的教室内发生感染的可能性。我们滚动式地确定在潜伏期/无症状期通过空气传播途径产生的二代感染数量的估计值。结果表明，假设是相对安静的伏案工作，二代感染数量可能令人放心地保持在1以下；然而，即使在同一所学校且使用相同的通风系统，不同教室之间的情况也可能差异很大。关键的是，数据显示出随季节的显著变化，1月的风险几乎是7月的两倍。我们表明，由于通风率变化导致的这种风险的季节性变化是显著的，而且我们的结果在疾病参数化的广泛变化中都成立，这表明我们的结果可能适用于多种不同的空气传播疾病。
The year 2020 has seen the world gripped by the effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic. It is not the first time, nor will it be last, that our increasingly globalized world has been significantly affected by the emergence of a new disease. In much of the Northern Hemisphere, the academic year begins in September, and for many countries, September 2020 marked the return to full schooling after some period of enforced closure due to COVID‐19. In this paper, we focus on the airborne spread of disease and investigate the likelihood of transmission in school environments. It is crucial to understand the risk airborne infection from COVID‐19 might pose to pupils, teachers, and their wider social groups. We use monitored CO2 data from 45 classrooms in 11 different schools from within the UK to estimate the likelihood of infection occurring within classrooms regularly attended by the same staff and pupils. We determine estimates of the number of secondary infections arising via the airborne route over pre/asymptomatic periods on a rolling basis. Results show that, assuming relatively quiet desk‐based work, the number of secondary infections is likely to remain reassuringly below unity; however, it can vary widely between classrooms of the same school even when the same ventilation system is present. Crucially, the data highlight significant variation with the seasons with January being nearly twice as risky as July. We show that such seasonal variations in risk due to changes in ventilation rates are robust and our results hold for wide variations in disease parameterizations, suggesting our results may be applied to a number of different airborne diseases.
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