Improving Ensemble-Based Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for Topography-Enhanced Typhoon Heavy Rainfall over Taiwan with a Modified Probability-Matching Technique
Improving Ensemble-Based Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for Topography-Enhanced Typhoon Heavy Rainfall over Taiwan with a Modified Probability-Matching Technique
复制标题
利用改进的概率匹配技术改进基于集合的台湾地形增强台风暴雨的定量降水预报
DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-13-00012.1
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Y. Kuo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xingqin Fang;Y. Kuo
摘要本文提出一种改进的概率匹配技术，用于台湾登陆台风的集合定量降水预报。该技术的主要特点包括集合实现的重新定位、降雨模式调整和偏差校正。使用这种技术，一个合成的集合创建的降雨预报的目的，从大规模（32个成员），低分辨率（36公里）的集合和小规模（8个成员），高分辨率（4公里）的集合。根据36公里和4公里集合的降水分布调整降雨模式。然后应用偏差校正方案来去除已知的系统偏差，作为概率匹配过程的一部分，从重新采样的4公里集合实现。修改后的概率匹配方案，大大减少或消除固有的模式降雨偏差，并提供更好的QPF指导。令人鼓舞的结果表明...
AbstractIn this paper, a modified probability-matching technique is developed for ensemble-based quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) associated with landfalling typhoons over Taiwan. The main features of this technique include a resampling of the ensemble realizations, a rainfall pattern adjustment, and a bias correction. Using this technique, a synthetic ensemble is created for the purpose of rainfall prediction from a large-size (32 members), low-resolution (36 km) ensemble and a small-size (8 members), high-resolution (4 km) ensemble. The rainfall pattern is adjusted based on the precipitation distribution of the 36- and 4-km ensembles. A bias-correction scheme is then applied to remove the known systematic bias from the resampled 4-km ensemble realizations as part of the probability-matching procedure. The modified probability-matching scheme is shown to substantially reduce or eliminate the intrinsic model rainfall bias and to provide better QPF guidance. The encouraging results suggest that ...