Stochastic demand frontier analysis of residential electricity demands in Japan
Stochastic demand frontier analysis of residential electricity demands in Japan
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DOI：
10.1007/s41685-022-00267-2
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发表时间：
2022-10
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Akihiro Otsuka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Akihiro Otsuka
本研究分析了1990年至2015年日本各供电地区的居民电力需求效率。具体来说，我利用随机前沿分析，统计确定居民用电需求的效率的决定因素。分析结果显示，平均家庭规模的缩小提高了电力需求的效率，而家庭成员老龄化的加剧则降低了电力需求的效率。此外，研究还显示，在较温暖的地区，由于对制冷需求的成本意识增强，电力需求的效率提高了，而在较寒冷的地区，由于各种供暖设备的互补使用，电力需求的效率降低了。2011年东日本大地震后日本能源政策的转变并未对居民用电需求的效率产生重大影响。换句话说，在观察期间，电力需求的效率没有发生结构性变化。因此，日本这一部门的长期趋势包括平均家庭规模下降和人口老龄化加剧。因此，这些研究结果对日本今后的能源需求趋势具有重要意义。
This study analyzed the efficiency of residential electricity demands from 1990 to 2015 across the electrical supply regions of Japan. Specifically, I utilized a stochastic frontier analysis to statistically identify the determinants of the efficiency of residential electricity demands. The analysis revealed that a decline in average household size improves the efficiency of electricity demands, whereas a rise in the aging of household members worsens it. Furthermore, this study showed that the efficiency of electricity demands improves in warmer regions because of increased cost consciousness in cooling demands, whereas it deteriorates in colder regions because of the complementary use of various heating devices. A shift in Japan’s energy policy following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake has not significantly affected the efficiency of residential electricity demands. In other words, no structural changes have occurred in the efficiency of electricity demands during the observation period. As such, long-term trends within this sector in Japan include a decline in the average household size and a rise in population aging. Therefore, these findings provide important insights into Japan’s future trends in terms of energy demands.