Spatio-Temporal Drought Risk Analysis Using GIS-Based Input Output Modeling
Spatio-Temporal Drought Risk Analysis Using GIS-Based Input Output Modeling
复制标题
使用基于 GIS 的输入输出建模进行时空干旱风险分析
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-030-16237-5_15
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Christian Yip
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Pagsuyoin;J. Santos;G. Salcedo;Christian Yip
最近在灾害风险管理领域的研究强调干旱的可能性日益增加及其不利后果。干旱可能产生广泛的严重影响；例如，2016年，美国东北部地区经历了创纪录的降雨短缺，迫使地区政府机构向公众发布警告和紧急咨询。在干旱事件期间，由于经济部门相互联系和相互依存的性质，水资源短缺和政府强制限制措施造成的经济损失造成了代价高昂的级联效应。这些部门对水的依赖程度不同，而且在实施针对特定部门的抗旱措施时往往缺乏协调，这使得干旱恢复管理成为一项复杂而艰巨的任务。事实上，水是一种至关重要的资源，它对生产经济中无数的商品和服务至关重要。在本章中，作者通过整合空间分析和动态投入产出模型，建立了一个新的干旱风险管理建模框架，以更好地理解干旱情景对区域经济相互依赖部门的直接和间接影响。利用地理信息系统（GIS）平台开发的决策支持工具具有以下功能：(1)模拟干旱情景对区域经济的时变影响；(2)模拟各个部门在干旱恢复时间线的不同阶段的反应；(3)估计实施不同类别干旱管理政策的区域经济损失和潜在效益。综合IO-GIS框架和决策支持工具的效用在2016年马萨诸塞州发生的历史性和广泛干旱的案例研究中得到了证明。
Recent studies in the area of disaster risk management emphasize the increasing likelihood and adverse consequences of droughts. Droughts can have widespread severe impacts; for example, in 2016, the northeastern region of the United States experienced record levels of rainfall shortage, forcing regional government agencies to issue warnings and emergency advisories to the public. During drought events, the economic losses due to water shortage and government-mandated restriction measures create costly cascading effects due to the interconnected and interdependent nature of the economic sectors. Such sectors have different degrees of dependence on water, and often there is a lack of coordination in implementing sector-specific resilience measures, which makes the drought recovery management a complex and daunting task. Indeed, water is a critical resource and it is essential in producing a myriad number of goods and services in the economy. In the current chapter, the authors develop a new modeling framework for drought risk management by integrating spatial analysis and dynamic input-output modeling to better understand the direct and indirect effects of drought scenarios on interdependent sectors of a regional economy. A decision support tool that utilizes the geographic information systems (GIS) platform was also developed to perform the following functions: (1) model the time-varying impacts of drought scenarios on a regional economy, (2) simulate the responses of individual sectors throughout various stages of the drought recovery timeline, and (3) estimate the regional economic losses and potential benefits of implementing different categories of drought management policies. The utility of the integrated IO-GIS framework and decision support tool is demonstrated in a case study of the historic and widespread drought that occurred in the State of Massachusetts in 2016.