Evaluation of agricultural sustainability based on human carrying capacity in drylands - a case study in rural villages in Inner Mongolia, China
Evaluation of agricultural sustainability based on human carrying capacity in drylands - a case study in rural villages in Inner Mongolia, China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agee.2004.12.017
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发表时间：
2005-06-05
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Ju, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Komatsu, Y;Tsunekawa, A;Ju, H
在中国，荒漠化、经济快速增长以及实施退耕还林还草政策（土地转用政策）对农村生活产生了巨大影响，威胁到农业的可持续性，这导致人口向其他地方移民，资源过度开发，或生活质量下降，导致村庄崩溃。在许多已开发的用于评估农业可持续性的指标中，我们使用了一种将人类承载力（HCC）与资源的实际开发水平进行比较的方法。本研究的目的是构建一个模型，估计HCC的观点，资源的供给和需求，并评估农业的可持续性，通过应用该模型在中国内蒙古农村地区。该模型是在实地调查的基础上建立的。土地生产力，土地利用结构，人均生物量的需求，以及农产品的价格，所有这些都影响HCC，被用作模型的输入参数。进行了实地调查，以确定这些参数的值。当前人口密度与HCC的比率，称为“人口容纳率”，是评估农业可持续性的有用指标。预测2010年的人口容纳率使我们得出两个结论。首先，如果土地转换政策继续下去，作物产量不增加，到2010年，研究地区的农村生活将受到威胁。第二，在研究区的生活质量将保持在2010年，如果作物生产力的增加弥补了单位土地的经济生产力的土地转换政策所造成的下降。因此，鉴于政策，重要的是要开发更有效的生产方法，以提高作物产量。(c)2005 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
In China, desertification, rapid economic growth, and enforcement of a policy of converting cultivated land back into forest and pasture (land conversion policy) have a great impact on rural life and threaten agricultural sustainability, which induces emigration to other places, over-exploitation of resources, or lower quality of life, resulting in the collapse of a village. Among many indicators that have been developed for evaluating agricultural sustainability, we used a method that compares human carrying capacity (HCC) with the actual exploitation level of resources. The purposes of this study were to construct a model for estimating HCC from the viewpoint of supply and demand of resources and to evaluate agricultural sustainability by applying the model to a rural area in Inner Mongolia, China. The model was constructed on the basis of a field-level survey of the study area. Land productivity, land use composition, demand for biomass per capita, and prices of agricultural products, all of which influence HCC, were used as the model's input parameters. Field investigations were conducted to determine the values of these parameters. The ratio of present population density to HCC, called the "rate of population accommodation", is a useful indicator for evaluating agricultural sustainability. Predicting the rate of population accommodation in 2010 allowed us to draw two conclusions. First, rural life in the study area will be threatened by 2010 if the land conversion policy is continued and crop productivity does not increase. Second, the quality of life in the study area will be maintained in 2010 if an increase in crop productivity makes up for the decrease in economic productivity per unit land caused by the land conversion policy. Therefore, given the policy, it is important to develop more effective production methods for increasing crop productivity. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.