Effects of various combinations of boundary layer schemes and microphysics schemes on the track forecasts of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea
Effects of various combinations of boundary layer schemes and microphysics schemes on the track forecasts of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea
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边界层方案与微物理方案的多种组合对南海热带气旋路径预报的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-015-1697-7
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发表时间：
2015-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Shiqiu Peng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shumin Chen;Yu-Kun Qian;Shiqiu Peng
本文研究了行星边界层（PBL）方案和微物理方案的不同组合对热带气旋（TC）数值预报的影响。利用YSU、MYJ和MYNN 2三种边界层方案和Ferrier、戈达德、WSM 6和Lin四种微物理方案的不同组合，对2012年南海5个登陆TC进行了大量的实验研究。结果表明，YSU方案和Ferrier方案的组合对TC路径的预报效果最好，但对降水的预报效果不是最好。进一步的分析表明，YSU方案和Ferrier方案的组合路径预报效果最好的主要原因是该组合产生了更准确的转向气流和TC风场结构。这些结果为今后的TC路径数值预报业务提供了有价值的参考。
This study investigates the effects of various combinations of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes and the microphysics schemes on the numerical forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs). Using different combinations of three PBL schemes (YSU, MYJ and MYNN2) and four microphysics schemes (Ferrier, Goddard, WSM6 and Lin), a number of experiments are carried out for five landed TCs in the South China Sea during 2012. Results show that the combination of the YSU and Ferrier schemes performs the best for the TC track forecasting, although it does not perform the best for the forecast of precipitation. Further analysis reveals that the best performance of the track forecast by the combination of the YSU and Ferrier schemes mainly attributes to a more accurate steering flow as well as TC wind structure produced by this combination. These results provide a valuable reference to the operational numerical forecasting of TC tracks in the future.
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影响因子：
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