Predicting Earth orientation changes from global forecasts of atmosphere-hydrosphere dynamics
Predicting Earth orientation changes from global forecasts of atmosphere-hydrosphere dynamics
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DOI：
10.1016/j.asr.2017.11.044
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发表时间：
2018-02-15
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Dill, Robert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dobslaw, Henryk;Dill, Robert
从大气、海洋和陆地表面动力学的全球数值模拟中获得的有效角动量 (EAM) 函数由德国地质研究中心的地球系统建模小组进行常规处理。 EAM 功能自 1976 年 1 月起推出，时间分辨率高达 3 小时。此外，每天还会定期发布为期 6 天的 EAM 预测。基于 15 个月内分布的 305 个单独预测的事后实验，我们证明 EAM 预测提高了 1 至 6 天内所有预测范围内地球定向参数的预测精度。在第 6 天，地极偏移的预测精度提高到 1.76 mas，Delta UT1 的预测精度提高到 2.6 mas，这相当于比国际地球自转和参考系统服务在公告 A 中发布的预测精度提高了约 41%。 (C) 2017 年 COSPAR。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) functions obtained from global numerical simulations of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface dynamics are routinely processed by the Earth System Modelling group at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum. EAM functions are available since January 1976 with up to 3 h temporal resolution. Additionally, 6 days-long EAM forecasts are routinely published every day. Based on hindcast experiments with 305 individual predictions distributed over 15 months, we demonstrate that EAM forecasts improve the prediction accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameters at all forecast horizons between 1 and 6 days. At day 6, prediction accuracy improves down to 1.76 mas for the terrestrial pole offset, and 2.6 mas for Delta UT1, which correspond to an accuracy increase of about 41% over predictions published in Bulletin A by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service. (C) 2017 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.