Methods for Eruption Prediction and Hazard Evaluation at Indonesian Volcanoes
Methods for Eruption Prediction and Hazard Evaluation at Indonesian Volcanoes
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印度尼西亚火山喷发预测和危害评估方法
DOI：
10.20965/jdr.2012.p0026
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
0.8
通讯作者：
N. Hokanishi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Iguchi;Surono;T. Nishimura;M. Hendrasto;Umar Rosadi;T. Ohkura;H. Triastuty;A. Basuki;A. Loeqman;S. Maryanto;K. Ishihara;M. Yoshimoto;S. Nakada;N. Hokanishi
我们报告了基于地球物理观测和地质调查的方法，用于预测印度尼西亚 4 座火山的喷发和活动评估。这些火山是塞梅鲁火山、克鲁德火山、贡图尔火山和锡纳朋火山。在塞梅鲁火山喷发之前，根据爆炸地震的强度，钻孔倾斜仪检测到倾斜度略有增加。结果显示了预测喷发类型和强度的可能性以及高信噪比观测的有效性。背景数据的建立对于长期预测中评价火山活动具有重要意义。喷发产物的累积量对于评估未来喷发的潜力很有价值。克卢德火山的喷发速率约为2x10 6 m 3 /年（DRE），但2007年喷发量仅为2x10 7 m 3 ，表明喷发潜力仍然很高。在贡土尔火山周围获得了火山和局部构造地震的典型分布，通过连续GPS观测进行大地测量监测具有重要价值。根据地质调查和年代测定，我们提出了锡纳朋火山喷发的情景，该火山在经历了历史上长期休眠后，于 2010 年发生了潜水喷发。
We report methods, based on geophysical observations and geological surveys, for the prediction of eruptions and the evaluation of the activity of 4 volcanoes in Indonesia. These are Semeru, Kelud, Guntur and Sinabung volcanoes. Minor increases in tilt were detected by borehole tiltmeters prior to eruptions at the Semeru volcano depending on the intensity of explosion earthquakes. The results show the possibility of prediction of the type and magnitude of eruption and the effectiveness of observation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The establishment of background data is important for evaluating volcanic activity in long-term prediction. The cumulative volume of eruptive products is valuable for evaluating the potential for future eruption. The eruptive rate of the Kelud volcano is ca 2x10 6 m 3 /y (DRE), but the volume of the 2007 eruption was only 2x10 7 m 3 , suggesting a still high potential for eruption. Typical distributions of volcanic and local tectonic earthquakes were obtained around the Guntur volcano, where geodetic monitoring by continuous GPS observation is valuable. Based on geological surveys and dating, an eruption scenario is proposed for the activity of Mt. Sinabung, where phreatic eruptions occurred in 2010 after a historically long dormancy.