GENERAL STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC MODEL
GENERAL STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC MODEL
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/0040-5809(77)90004-1
复制
发表时间：
1977-01-01
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
BECKER, NG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BECKER, NG
提出了一种非马尔可夫流行病模型，对于该模型，一个随机流行阈值定理成立，就像惠特尔(1955)对一个更简单的模型所做的那样。阈值定理可用于确定预防传染病暴发的公共卫生措施。得到了轻微流行病的平均大小的界限。模型的一个参数是感染率和感染期平均持续时间的乘积，其值对这些结果的应用至关重要。通过识别与流行病模型的计数过程有关的估计，并通过构造可写为随机积分的其他估计，提出了该参数的估计量。
A non-Markovian epidemic model is proposed for which a stochastic epidemic threshold theorem, like that by Whittle (1955) for a simpler model, holds. The threshold theorem can be useful in determining public health measures for preventing communicable disease outbreaks. Bounds are obtained for the mean size of minor epidemics. A parameter of the model, whose value is crucial to applications of these results, is the product of the infection rate and the mean duration of the infectious period. Estimators are suggested for this parameter by identifying martingales associated with counting processes of the epidemic model and by constructing other martingales which can be written as stochastic integrals.