A hybrid approach for safety assessment in high-risk hydropower-construction-project work systems

A hybrid approach for safety assessment in high-risk hydropower-construction-project work systems
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高风险水电建设项目工作系统安全评估的混合方法

DOI:
10.1016/j.ssci.2013.12.008
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发表时间:
2014-04
期刊:
影响因子:
6.1
通讯作者:
Zhi-Yu Sun
Zhi-Yu Sun
中科院分区:
工程技术2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Jian-Lan Zhou;Ze-Hua Bai;Zhi-Yu Sun

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利用186起相关事故的数据,对大型水电建设工程管理中人为因素的交互关系进行了分析和评价。人们对人为因素对施工事故的影响进行了许多研究。人为因素分析与分类系统(HFACS)的建立是为了建立合理、适用的事故人为失误调查指标体系。另外,目前采用lambda检验进行因素的相关分析;采用决策试验评价实验室(DEMATEL)和网络分析法(ANP)的方法对各因素进行评估。我们扩展了 HFACS 来评估这项工作中的错误行为风险值。通过 lambda 相关测量方法分析涉及用于在 DEMATEL 中构建直接关系矩阵的数据的独立因素之间的相互作用程度。 DEMATEL得出的因果图和计算结果表明,“安全监督检查”和“组织责任”是最重要的因素。而且,实证研究表明,混合方法比传统的ANP方法更合适、更有效。结合DEMATEL和ANP的评估模型考虑了因素之间的相互作用及其自反馈,比传统方法更适合解决簇间影响程度不同的问题。 ANP模型计算的施工事故因素权重和DEMATEL方法得出的因果图都为多个大型水电建设项目高风险作业系统的安全管理提供了建议。
The interactive relationships among human factors involved in large-scale hydropower-construction-project management are analyzed and assessed by the data associated with 186 cases of related accident. Many studies have been conducted on human factors influence on construction accidents. The human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS) is developed to establish a rational and applicable index system for investigating human error in accidents. Also, currently the lambda test is used for the correlation analysis of factors; while the factors are assessed by the methods of the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and the analytic network process (ANP). We extend the HFACS to evaluate the faulty behavioral risk value in this work. The degrees of interaction between independent factors that involved the data used for constructing the direct-relation matrix in DEMATEL are analyzed via the lambda correlation measurement method. The causal graph and calculate results obtained by DEMATEL shows that “safety supervision and inspection” and “organization and responsibility” are the most important factors. Moreover, the empirical study shows that the hybrid method is more suitable and effective than the traditional ANP method. The evaluation model incorporating DEMATEL and ANP takes into account the interaction between factors and their self-feedback, which are more suitable than the traditional method to solve problems with different degrees of effects among clusters. The weights of construction accident factors calculated by the ANP model and the causal graph derived from DEMATEL method both provide suggestions for safety management in the high-risk work systems of several large hydropower-construction projects.
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